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Donald Trump. Robotics. Omni-Channel Fulfillment. The New NAFTA. Freight Marketplaces. Autonomous Vehicles. The Internet of Things. Andrew Scheer. Brexit. Climate Change. Last-Mile Delivery. Legalized Marijuana. E-commerce. Emmanuel Macron. The Amazon Effect. Drones. Digital Freight Management. Uber. Clean Energy. This is just a partial list of the major forces shaping the world of Freight Transportation in 2017.

This year's Surface Transportation Summit (www.surfacetransportationsummit.com) will focus on the strategies and tactics that shippers and carriers can employ to address these forces. The event will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 11. This is a joint venture between Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates with the support of the Freight Management Association of Canada and the Canadian Trucking Alliance. Northbridge Insurance will be the Gold sponsor, with Navistar, Volvo Trucks and Isaac Instruments, the silver sponsors and Trailer Wizards, the bronze sponsor.

In a year when political and economic alliances, new technologies and environmental policies are changing rapidly, the Summit will provide strategies and tactics to address these forces.  Here is an overview of the agenda and speakers.

The first track is entitled, The Donald Trump Effect and The Economy in 2018: What trends will impact your business? Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist with Scotiabank, will share data on the Key Economic Indicators for 2017 and then provide his insights into the economy in the New Year. John Larkin, one of America’s foremost transportation industry analysts, will share his thoughts on the some of the most important developments in the US transportation industry. Walter Spracklin, Equity Transportation Analyst, RBC Capital Markets, will provide his insights on the Canadian transportation industry.  Sylvie Messier, Corporate Transportation & Customs Manager, IPEX and Doug Munro, President and Owner, Maritime-Ontario Freight Lines Limited will share their thoughts on this topic in a panel discussion.

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The previous blog looked at the potential Trump Effect (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=258 ) on Freight Transportation in 2017. This blog will focus on some of the other variables that are likely to shape the freight world in the coming year.

Upswing in Economic Growth

While 2016 was a soft year economically and in terms of freight and freight rate pricing, shippers, carriers, and economists are somewhat more optimistic about the New Year. Interest rates are likely to remain low (although there will likely be some increases in 2017). Household balance sheets are expected to remain in good shape. Employment levels in the U.S. are projected to remain strong. Investment in energy development is likely to increase. Inventory levels are predicted to decrease, driving an increase in manufacturing. Donald Trump has committed to increase the number of jobs in the United States in the coming year. The improving U.S. economy will likely help boost the Canadian economy as well.

Increase in Cost of Diesel Fuel

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Finding your “Lane” in Life

Posted by on in Career Advice

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This is a follow up to the blog on “Passion” (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/passion ) that was posted here a few weeks ago and is published in the current issue of Canadian Shipper. While the blog on Passion was inspired by Bernie Sanders, this blog was inspired by Lin-Manuel Miranda, the author and star of the hit Broadway play “Hamilton.”

On Sunday night, during an interview on Sixty Minutes, Lin-Manuel and his parents were asked by Charlie Rose about their son’s early school experience. Mr. Miranda mentioned that he was sent to a school for gifted children. At first he felt intimidated by the school and the intelligence of his fellow class mates. Mr. Miranda then mentioned that once he found “his lane,” or calling at the school, Music, he felt totally comfortable with the institution and his career path.

Hamilton, based on the life of former U.S. treasury secretary, Alexander Hamilton, is the hottest play on Broadway. On Sunday night it earned 11 Tony awards, the second best performance ever for a new play. Mr. Miranda created a brilliant hip-hop musical to tell this story. Some critics are calling Hamilton a trans-formative play that will have lasting effects on the future of Broadway.

Lin-Manuel Miranda was very fortunate to find his “lane” as he described it. Not everyone does. It is interesting that by finding his lane, Mr. Miranda was able to reach extraordinary heights in his career. Here are some thoughts on the key steps in finding a successful career lane.

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The 2016 Surface Transportation Summit will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 13. The event will be co-hosted by Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates in partnership with the Ontario Trucking Association and the Freight Management Association of Canada. There will be some exciting changes this year.

As always, the conference will be kicked off by a look ahead to the Economy in the year ahead. Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist, Scotiabank will share his overview of 2016 and make some projections for the coming year. For the first time, the Summit will showcase two of North America’s top freight industry investment analysts. Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, Capital Markets, RBC Investment Securities, will offer his insights on the freight transportation industry in Canada. John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, at Stifel Financial Corp., will provide a status report on the current state of the freight industry in the United States.

Wendell Erb, President & CEO, The Erb Group of Companies will provide some commentary on the economy from a trucking company perspective. He will be joined by a Rob Bryson, recently retired Vice-President at Parrish & Heimbecker, who will provide observations and perspectives from a shipper’s perspective.

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Every few years I like to take a look at some of the new technology-based entrants to the freight transportation industry to see who are the “movers” and “shakers.” While Amazon dominates the headlines, there are a host of other companies doing some very interesting things in the technology space.

This blog will look at some names that surfaced in the past and some of the new players that are taking freight brokerage to a new level. While new technology is being applied to a variety of freight related tasks (i.e. calculating freight dimensions, dock appointment scheduling), this blog will examine some of the companies are actually in the business of moving freight. They are bridging the asset world with the technology world. I have selected a group of companies that have caught my attention. They are Cargomatic, uShip, Freightera, Freightquote, FreightCentre, Uship, Project44, Logistical Labs and ZRATE.

Cargomatic

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_xl_66940210.jpgIt was just a few years ago that the airline industry appeared to be teetering on the abyss. During this tumultuous period, many airlines merged or went out of business. Passengers had the upper hand and played one carrier off against another to their best advantage. One of the tools that helped salvage the industry and significantly boost its financial results has been pricing.  The airlines have become very clever in monetizing every aspect of their business.

If you want food on a plane, you have to pay for it. If you wish to reserve a seat or obtain a seat with more legroom, you pay for it. On many airlines, you pay for every bag you check. If a passenger travels to a specific set of destinations on a repetitive basis, some airlines will create a package deal (i.e. offer a block of tickets at a preferred rate).

The size of a plane utilized is tailored to the volume of passengers on the route. Certain larger size planes are utilized on heavy volume routes during the day and then assigned to less frequent evening fights on lower volume routes. Smaller planes or small regional partner airlines are utilized for flights to remote locations.

Now, with dynamic pricing, airlines adjust their fares based on seat availability, time of day, day of the week and other variables. Low fares are available in the early stages to create critical mass. As a flight fills up, rates go up. Passengers are “manipulated” into taking flights at slower times of the day to balance loads and maximize profits.

The brokers of the freight industry, online travel agents such as Expedia, are also skilled at managing travel data and selling flights, hotel rooms and car rentals. The LTL freight industry is in the process of learning from the airline industry.

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This week’s visit to Washington by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his family and his Canadian delegation was certainly one of the high points in U.S. – Canada relations in many years. It brought back memories of President Reagan and PM Mulroney singing “When Irish Eyes are Smiling” in Quebec City many years ago.

Watching the leaders toast each other and seeing some concrete agreements come out of the meetings was certainly a sign that Canada-US relations are back on a positive track. The fact that President Obama hosted a state dinner for Mr. Trudeau, the first state dinner for a Canadian Prime Minister in 19 years, was a very positive indicator that Canada is back in the good graces of its most important ally and trading partner.

Unfortunately for Canada, Barack Obama is in the last year of his presidency. At this point, the presidential race is pretty much down to four candidates, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump and Ted Cruz for the Republicans. As you listen to and study the rhetoric from these candidates, and sense the mood of the American electorate, there is much to worry about.

The Democrats

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A few weeks ago, I gave a presentation to a group of transportation professionals at a Best Practices in Cross-Border Freight Transportation conference in Buffalo, NY, sponsored by SMC3. I made the point that changes in just one variable, Currency Exchange, could make or break a company. As I look back over my lifetime (I am an old guy), Canada – U.S. exchange rates have varied from a Canadian dollar being worth $0.61 US to $1.10 US. As evidenced by the past few days, these currency fluctuations can occur quickly and without warning.

Furthermore, these types of variances can have huge impacts on shippers and carriers. If you look at some of Canada’s core industries (e.g. newsprint, minerals), the effects can be devastating in terms of market competitiveness, north-south freight flows, freight rates, empty miles, - - - even business survival.  Currency exchange fluctuations are just one of a number of variables that can change quickly and without much warning. There are a host of others.

Think about the winter we came through in the first quarter of this year. Is this the result of climate change? Will this be, as some suspect, the new normal? Have you made plans in the event that the next winter is as bad as the last one? We are still dealing with rail congestion as a result of the harsh winter and we are about to enter the fourth quarter. In addition to winter storms, we are seeing an upswing in other types of weather issues (e.g. tornados) in America and other countries.

Think about the Middle East that is a powder keg today. What if war breaks out in a variety of locales? What if ISIS tries to attack America? What if some sources of energy supplies are cut off and diesel fuel prices spike? What happens if the economy spikes? Think about the driver shortages today, the challenges in attracting drivers into the industry and the potential impacts on the supply of truck and rail equipment if the demand for transportation services is not met with an increase in supply. What would significant increases in freight rates do to your business?

Think about the possibility of an economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, Russia and/or South America, countries that are still dealing with the aftermath of the last recession. What would happen to our economy if some of these economies falter? We are living in a turbulent and fragile world.

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For many years, industry experts have been predicting a consolidation in the Canadian freight industry. During and after the Great Recession, the decibel level of these warnings increased as most trucking companies faced the challenges of reduced freight volumes, sinking rates and the difficulty of managing a business during recessionary times. In fact, the industry did shrink by an estimated fifteen percent during the downturn, not through acquisition, but through companies closing their doors or parking equipment.

As one looks back over the past five years, the Canadian economy has been recovering, albeit painfully slowly. There has been some growth in GDP and in jobs, largely in the west. During this same period, the Canadian freight industry has been consolidating and continues to consolidate. This has been driven by a host of factors.

There were and still are willing sellers. Many trucking company owners, particularly those in the baby boomer generation, without a succession plan, or with poor prospects for survival, saw the sale of their business as the most logical business option. For some, the challenge of hanging on during the Great Recession, took some of the appeal out of the business. That coupled with the option of creating a retirement fund was a desirable route to follow.

The post-recession business climate brought a host of challenges. Just as trucking company owners are getting older, so are truck drivers. Young men and women are not interested in becoming long haul truck drivers, dealing with crossing the Canada – US border, spending weeks away from their families, for $40,000 to $50,000 per year. The driver shortage, coupled with rising costs of fuel and equipment, low margins, increasing technological sophistication and regulatory changes, have made life much more difficult, particularly for small fleets with limited access to capital.

In addition, there were and still are willing buyers. Some of the larger trucking companies and conglomerates have been active buyers. Take a look at the websites of the large truckers to see the list of companies that have been acquired. The larger fleets have seized the opportunity to increase market share, to enter new markets, and/or to acquire new drivers, equipment and management talent. With TransForce’s acquisition of Contrans, we are now seeing a very large conglomerate devour a large conglomerate. What does this all mean for the Canadian freight industry?

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E-commerce purchases make up 5 percent of Sales in the United States and about 3.4 percent in Canada. These relatively small percentages may cause retailers and trucking companies to downplay the role that e-commerce is having and will have on this sector on this sector. This would be a huge mistake.

Dramatic changes are coming to almost all facets of the retail sector. In the home entertainment and book distribution segment, retailers are changing product lines and the customer buying process experience. A trip to the local Chapters or Indigo store will open your eyes to the types of transformations under way. As online music sales have escalated in recent years, CDs have been almost totally removed from store shelves and books constitute a much lower percentage of the floor space. In their place, you will find dolls, toys, gifts, glassware, e-readers and tablets, blankets and a host of other items. Since so many Dell computers and other high tech products have been purchased online for the past 20 years, consumers are very confident in buying products in this manner.

A visit to the local Loblaw’s store will highlight a much larger footprint and a greatly expanded product line. Take-out meals, sushi counters, organic and non-organic food counters, in-house restaurants and a host of other changes have greatly expanded the size of these giant stores. Staples, Toys “R” Us and Best Buy Co. Inc. are shrinking their store space, expanding stock rooms for e-commerce distribution or shutting certain outlets. Toys “R” Us is converting more store space to backrooms to fulfill its growing number of online purchases. Later this year it will begin allowing customers to pick up their online orders at its stores.

Meanwhile in the United States, Amazon is investing in distribution centres in the major markets so it can provide same day delivery to its customers. This will allow them to take direct aim at a range of retailers in these markets. As they increase their e-commerce business, they will continue to draw more business away from traditional retailers.

Retailers are scratching their heads as to the appropriate footprints for their stores, the correct assortment of products, the marketing approaches they should use for their brick and mortar operations and e-commerce operations and whether to shutter or add stores.

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For the sixth consecutive year, Dan Goodwill & Associates and the Business Information Group (publishers of Canadian Shipper and MotorTruck Fleet Executive) will be co-hosting a Surface Transportation Summit. The 2014 Summit, scheduled for October 15 at the Mississauga Convention Centre, will feature expanded networking opportunities and more educational tracks. The following are some of the highlights.

The event will be kicked off by Carlos Gomes, a Senior Economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia. Carlos along with a panel of shippers and carriers, will take a look ahead at where the Canadian Economy and the Canadian Freight Industry will be going in 2015. Joining Lou Smyrlis, Publisher and Editorial Director at the Business Information Group on a panel will be David Newman, Director, Equity Research Analyst with Cormak Securities, Patrick Cain, CEO at Cain Express and Mark Seymour, President of Kriska Holdings Ltd.

This will be followed by an Executive Leadership Perspectives panel. Paul Cooper, President of SLH Transport, Douglas Harrison, CEO of Versacold Logistics, Mathieu Faure, Marketing & Sales, Intermodal, CP Rail and Rob Penner, Executive Vice President and COO, Bison Transport, will share their thoughts on some of the major issues facing their sectors of the Transportation industry.

One of the hot topics at last year’s Summit was the need for more shipper-carrier collaboration. In fact, the primary advocate who spoke on this topic was Jacquie Meyers, President of Meyers Transportation Services. Jacquie will be back this year and will discuss this topic in a panel discussion with Gary Fast, Associate Vice president, Domestic Transportation Services at Canadian Tire and Elias Demangos, President & CEO, Fortigo Transportation Management Group.

The final track of the morning will focus on Same Day Delivery Service- Challenges and Opportunities. March Wulfraat, Founder and President of MWPVL International, one of the world’s foremost experts on Amazon’s fulfillment centres and same day delivery initiatives, will address what has become one of the hottest topics in the freight industry.

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If your trucking company hasn’t been purchased or doesn’t get purchased by TransForce, will it be in business in five years?  That is the question that came up in a recent discussion with a long time industry colleague.  The response I received was that he didn’t think his company would survive.  I was a bit surprised by the response and asked him for an explanation.  This led to an interesting discussion on what it is going to take to make it in the trucking industry in 2014 and beyond.

We both agreed that while the trucking industry has changed in some ways over the past decade (e.g. more use of technology, better cost controls after the Great Recession, LNG vehicles, greater use of 3PLs as customers), the industry is not that much different from ten years ago.  The slow economic turnaround since 2008 has created a challenging environment and there is little reason to expect a major improvement in the short term.  Rate increases are hard to come by, even with a tight driver situation.  Even more of a concern is the lack of innovation in the industry and the threat that such changes could wreak on so many complacent companies.

The warning signs are there.  As a Canadian, you don’t have to look much further than Nortel and Blackberry to see what can happen to industry leaders that were not able to keep up with changing consumer needs and quality competitors.  At the same time, one can observe what companies such as Amazon and Apple have been able to do to change the paradigm of some long established industries. 

Some of the large trucking industry players are making investments in technology and people.  They are integrating back offices and focusing on achieving economies of scale.  They are thoughtfully expanding their service portfolios and geographic footprints. 

Some of the small players are offering solutions that are very tailored to certain industry verticals and geographic areas.  Companies that are focused on same day delivery, refrigerated intermodal service, pooled LTL service, energy distribution and other emerging capabilities are creating a space for themselves in the industry.

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Last week the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals released its 24th annual State of Logistics Report. Last year, business logistics costs were once again 8.5 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the same level they hit in 2011, the new report says. That means freight logistics was growing at about the same rate as the GDP. Inventory carrying costs and transportation costs rose "quite modestly" in 2012, said the report's author Rosalyn Wilson. Year-over-year, inventory carrying costs (interest, taxes/obsolescence/depreciation/insurance, and warehousing) increased 4% y/y as inventory levels climbed to a new peak. Meanwhile, transportation costs were up 3% y/y predominantly from an increase of 2.9% in overall truck transportation costs.

This "new normal" is characterized by slow growth (GDP growth of 2.5% to 4.0%), higher unemployment, slower job creation (which will primarily be filled by part-time workers due to higher healthcare costs), increased productivity of the current workforce from investment in machinery/technology (and not human capital), and a less reliable or predictable freight service (as volumes rise but capacity does not increase fast enough to meet demand). Wilson noted that slow growth and lackluster job creation has caused the global economy to wallow in mixed levels of recovery. "This month will mark the fourth year of recovery after the Great Recession, and you're probably thinking that here has not been much to celebrate," said Wilson. "Is it time to ask, 'Is this the new normal?'"

For logisticians, the "new normal" means less predictable and less reliable freight services as volumes rise but capacity does not. In areas such as ocean transport, Wilson said, this can mean slower transit times. "I do believe the economy and logistics sector will slowly regain sustainable momentum, but that we'll still experience unevenness in growth rates," Wilson predicted.

For cutting-edge logistics managers, however, the current environment also means great opportunities to secure increasingly tight capacity in an era of shrewd rate bargaining. This is partly because the trucking industry, in particular, is facing a lid on capacity because of higher qualifications for drivers while top carriers are becoming increasingly selective in their choice of customers and in the allocation of their assets.

"Truck capacity is still walking a fine line—few shortages, but industry-high utilization rates," Wilson explained. Truckload capacity continues to remain stagnant (with the majority of new equipment orders for replacement or dedicated fleets and the copious amount of truckload capacity sapping regulations coming down the pipeline) and the assumption that freight demand will continue to modestly increase (as the economy continues to muddle along at low single digit GDP growth in combination with population growth), a less predictable and less reliable freight market is developing (as described in the "new normal").

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The world of freight transportation is changing rapidly.  The signs are there and they are unmistakable.  Recognizing and responding effectively to these signals may help determine which shippers and carriers will survive in the years ahead.  Let’s examine the components of the new paradigm of freight transportation.

The Era is Cheap Oil is Over

The steep escalation in fuel prices this year is a harbinger of things to come for shippers and carriers.  This time there will likely be no major recession to bring energy prices down.  The sad fact is that 95 percent of transportation modes, passenger and freight, run on petroleum products and the likelihood of finding new sources of supply or of shrinkage in global demand is highly unlikely. In fact the use of petroleum in countries such as China and India is on the rise.

The result will be tighter truck capacity, greater use of intermodal rail services, the electrification of transportation systems, the relocation of factories and distribution centres and the slow shift to cleaner, cheaper fuels.  It will drive more LCV’s (long combination vehicles) or “turnpikes” and more triple trailer configurations.  This may be the impetus to harmonize our laws throughout North America to remove barriers to the movement of the most energy efficient vehicle combinations across our highways.   To curb use, many countries will have to begin looking at the Danish example of higher taxes on fuel inefficient vehicles and higher taxes on petroleum.  Get used to it.

The Driver Shortage is Real

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