These are crazy times. Wildfires in Canada produced dark skies over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States and some of the worst pollution on record. We are only in mid-July and the peak fire season hasn’t begun. Record high temperatures are being experienced in the southern United States on a daily basis. Severe rain, flooding and flight cancellations are being experienced in the northeast.

Former President Trump was indicted for a second time this year, the first time a previous President has ever faced charges after leaving office. There are possibly two more indictments to come.

The Vegas Golden Knights, in their sixth year of existence, won the Stanley Cup while the six Canadian teams in the National Hockey League, where hockey in the national sport, haven’t won the cup in 30 years. The screen actors and writers have gone on strike together for the first time in 63 years.

Looking at the broader economy, manufacturing has been contracting on a year/year basis. Retail inventories are bloated. As fears of the pandemic faded, consumers switched back to buying services. High mortgage rates are resulting is less building and less freight. According to Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior VP of the American Trucking Association, all freight indicators are contracting on a year/year basis. Supply is contracting; demand is contracting. There is still too much supply. The Spot Market is much worse than the Contract Market. Despite the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy, the economy has not yet entered a recession.

In the first seven months of this year, we have witnessed two of the largest acquisitions in the LTL trucking sector in many years. In January we observed the acquisition of UPS’s LTL division by TFII, the large Canada-based transportation conglomerate. Last week the nation’s largest TL carrier, Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE: KNX,) acquired AAA Cooper Transportation in a $1.35 billion deal. AAA Cooper runs a regional network of 70 facilities and 3,400 doors spanning from El Paso, Texas, to the Southern East Coast, along with multiple locations in the Midwest. Knight-Swift purchased a company with a fleet of 3,000 tractors and 7,000 trailers for less than 10x EBITDA.

At $43 billion in revenue, the US LTL sector is approximately one tenth the size of the truckload industry. For many years this was a highly competitive low margin business. What is driving these large M & A activities in the LTL sector by predominantly truckload carriers?

Continued Strength in Manufacturing

Manufacturing and industrial activity, which can account for up to 85% of LTL tonnage for some carriers, has been strong during the pandemic. The Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) was 60.7% in June. The overall US economy has expanded for eleven consecutive months.

The new year has started with a bang with TFII's planned purchase of the LTL Freight division of UPS.  TFII is a large Canadian freight transportation conglomerate and it's deal is unique in some ways but not in others.

The challenge for many Canadian LTL carriers has been to establish a solid arrangement with a profitable, reliable US LTL partner so they can jointly secure lucrative cross-border freight. Since the United States population is ten times the size of Canada’s, historically it has been financially difficult for a Canadian LTL carrier to purchase a major US LTL partner. Besides the cost, an acquisition of this nature only makes sense if the Canadian carrier is prepared to compete in the U.S. domestic LTL market.

As a result, most Canadian LTL carriers that have been interested in cross-border LTL freight, have formed partnerships with or more U.S. carriers. These partnerships typically last for a few years until one of the following things happen. The U.S. carrier decides to buy a Canadian carrier or cartage company in one or more Canadian cities and enter the market under their own banner. Alternatively, the one partner becomes frustrated with the other partner due to a lack of sales production. The carriers then must seek other partners or another group of partners as replacements. This partnership arrangement has been prevalent for decades.

A Brief History of Canadian Purchases of U.S. LTL Carriers

Covid-19, and its effects on our personal and business lives, was clearly the major story of 2020. This topic was covered in the previous blog.  The impacts of the other major news story, the Biden / Harris election, will play out over the next four years. However, there were several other surface transportation events over the past 12 months that were significant. They are summarized below.

1. Digitization advances in the world of Freight Transportation

Digitization, the replacement of manual, paper-based information processes with electronic ones is transforming the industry. The benefits are clear. Shippers obtain precise data on cargo, from pickup to delivery, on which to base decisions. Carriers have more data on how and where they serve specific shippers and on their true costs. The wave of digital technologies already transforming truckload and brokerage is reaching into LTL, driven in part by larger supply chain changes and by the explosion of e-commerce.

Technology is not the problem; some trucking companies have been electronically sharing data with customers since the 1980s, first via electronic data interchange (EDI) and more recently via application program interfaces (APIs). The roadblock is in the process, in implementing digital standards, and in getting customers to buy into going digital.

The Covid-19 pandemic, and the response of the Canadian and U.S. governments and citizens to the virus, is clearly the major story of 2020. The pandemic did not just have impacts on the health of many Americans (i.e. over 11 million cases, 250,000 deaths) and Canadians (i.e. over 306,000 cases, 11,000 deaths); it also had significant impacts on our personal lives, business operations, and freight transportation. This blog will highlight the huge effect of Covid-19 on so many aspects of our lives; an upcoming blog will capture some of the other top freight stories of the past year.

1. Covid-19 – The Impact on our Health and Personal Lives

Millions of Americans and Canadians have been infected and continue to be infected at an escalating rate. Personal reactions have ranged from mild flu-like symptoms to significant health issues to death. To protect oneself from contracting the virus, many citizens have begun wearing masks and other PPE, limiting the size of groups with whom they interact and trying to maintain six feet or more of distance between themselves and others.

The lack of national strategies in Canada and the USA on testing, tracing, and quarantining have resulted in a protracted and extensive virus spread. Varying guidelines on mask utilization, industry sector lockdowns and re-openings, and varying leadership approaches have created confusion, fragmented responses, and disappointing results. Many citizens must stay home if they tested positive, if they had symptoms, or if they had to be quarantined. Many primary, secondary and university students are now participating in online learning rather than attending schools. The year is ending with at least two potentially effective vaccines, which will likely be distributed during the first six months of 2021.

A couple of weeks ago I received a copy of a fascinating new book entitled The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power, written by Roger Duncan and Michael E. Webber and published by DW Books. I was particularly struck by the chapters on the Future of the Freight Transportation Industry.

They identify “three major areas of change underway in our transportation sector. First, there is the cultural change in the way we own or use vehicles daily. Second, there are fundamental shifts in transportation technology. And finally, alternative fuels are capturing the fuel market.” Below please find some of their thoughts on Transportation Technology.

Electric Vehicles

Messrs. Duncan and Webber conclude that “the resurgence of the electric vehicle (EV) is strong today and electric cars seem destined to dominate our local transportation . . . A global coalition of countries has the aspirational goal of electric vehicles taking 30 percent of the market share by 2030. . . Cars, sedans, vans, and most trucks will be electrified in the coming decades . . . At the core of this transition is the relative efficiency of electric motors compared with internal combustion engines.”

On July 1, 2020 the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it was providing YRC Worldwide with a two-tranche loan that would allow it to make delinquent health and welfare and pension payments as well as fund capital expenditures for its tractors and trailers. As part of the deal, YRC is required to issue the Treasury Department shares of common stock, which YRC expects will equate to a 29.6% equity stake in the company.

The press release stated that “YRC is a leading provider of critical military transportation and other hauling services to the U.S. government and provides 68% of less-than-truckload services to the Department of Defense. This loan will enable YRC to maintain approximately 30,000 trucking jobs and continue to support essential military supply chain operations and the transport of industrial, commercial, and retail goods to more than 200,000 corporate customers across North America.”

It is noteworthy that this is the first time the U.S government has taken a large stake in a company seeking a bailout in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. It is also the first loan announced from the $17 billion relief fund created by U.S. lawmakers to help "businesses critical to maintaining national security."

To make sense of this bailout, it is worth taking a trip back in history. In the early 2000s there were three large unionized LTL carriers, Consolidated Freightways, Roadway Corporation and Yellow Freight System. Back in 2002, Consolidated Freightways Corp., America's third-largest trucker laid off about 15,500 workers, shut down its operations and filed for bankruptcy.

The recovery of the North American transportation industry is contingent upon the revival of the economies of the United States and Canada. The movement of auto parts, housing supplies, manufactured goods, food stuffs. and a host of other products drive the economy. If there are any impediments to the smooth operation of North American supply chains, this has a direct impact on the Transportation industry. This blog will focus on the forces shaping the revival of the two economies. Part 2 will focus on what the freight transportation industry will look like after the recovery.

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, Canada has lost about 3 million jobs while the U.S. has lost about 40 million jobs. Many of the unemployed have been forced to stay at home due to the contagious nature of the virus. For the past week, the United States has also been rocked by protests in over 75 major cities because of the killing in Minneapolis, Minnesota of an African American man, George Floyd, by a white police officer.

Most U.S. states and Canadian provinces are in “the restart” period. With no vaccine for probably nine months or more, companies need to generate revenue and profits during the “next normal” phase. Businesses and consumers are having to learn to adapt to the public health guidelines in each jurisdiction (i.e. social distancing, handwashing, mask wearing, drive to work rather than take public transportation etc.) and the new operating procedures (i.e. curbside pickup, controlled entry to stores and businesses, working from home etc.).

In the space of a few months, we have discovered that jobs that no one thought could be done remotely can be handled very effectively with a laptop computer and video conferencing. Cash-strapped businesses are learning that they can cut costs through the reduction or elimination of office space and its attendant costs. Teleconferencing reduces the need for business travel, another cost saver. Commuting costs can be cut – a walk to the home office beats hours in a car or on public transit. Of course, not everyone can work from home.

2019 in Review

After the hot freight market and record profits of 2018, many trucking companies added trucks and drivers to keep up with the expected shippers’ capacity demands in 2019. An index published by the Institute for Supply Management dropped to 47.2 in December, the lowest reading since June 2009 and the fifth straight month of contraction. A reading below 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is contracting. In 2019, excess truck capacity was met with a “manufacturing recession.”

One key trade flow indicator that maritime experts and world economists examine, is the volume of the eastbound trans-Pacific trade lane — the regional trade lane for ocean containers that originate in East Asia and end in the United States. This trade lane accounts for 40% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The flow of containers in this trade lane has marked a plunge in weakening relations. U.S. exports out of the Port of Los Angeles (the end of the lane) is down 12 consecutive months. China imports have dropped significantly. The ripple effect of this change not only hit the maritime system but the trucking and rail systems as well since there was less freight to move.

Here is my annual recap of the major trends that shaped the Surface Transportation industry during the past year.

1. The Reboot – The Trucking Industry goes into a Freight Recession in 2019

After a booming first three quarters of 2018, the trucking industry contracted in the fourth quarter; by mid-April of 2019, it became apparent (https://www.barrons.com/articles/trucking-industry-is-in-a-recession-will-economy-follow-51565880739) that the trucking industry was in a “freight recession.” In a “strange inversion of market dynamics,” truckload rates dipped below intermodal rates in some lanes. By mid-year, the Cass Freight Shipper Expenditure Index turned negative year / year signaling that shippers were paying less for freight and moving fewer loads than the previous year.

The correction seemed to be a result of several factors. Slower industrial production was evidenced by the dip below 50 in the ISM Production Index. Trade tensions and tariff wars with China reduced demand. On the supply side, many truckers added to their fleets to address the capacity shortages in 2018. This coupled with higher pay to attract drivers and increasing insurance costs, drove up expenses as freight rates were falling. Softening demand, coupled with excess capacity, produced the Freight Recession of 2019.

The 2019 Surface Transportation Summit took place last week at the International Centre in Toronto. The event was co-hosted by Newcom Inc. and Dan Goodwill and Associates, in partnership with the Ontario Trucking Association, the Freight Management Association of Canada and the CSCMP Toronto Roundtable.   Hundreds of shippers and carriers attended the event to learn from the various presentations and panel discussions and to network with other industry professionals.

Josh Nye, Senior Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, kicked off the day by sharing that the global economy has lost momentum, particularly in the industrial sector. Canadian manufacturing has not declined as fast in the United States. Protectionist trade policies are having an impact and are having a downside risk on the outlook. The yield curve is pointing to a heightened risk of recession in the next year or two. At this point RBC expects slower growth, but not a recession.

To maintain economic growth, the banks have shifted to easing monetary policy. The transport sector has slowed alongside industrial production; confidence has declined recently. A strong labour market has supported income growth and given consumer spending a slight boost. Similarly, business sentiment has taken a hit; firms are still planning to invest but capexes will take a hit. Non-energy exports have lost momentum.

David Ross, Managing Director, Global Transportation & Logistics, Stifel Financial Corp. spoke about the “mini freight recession” in the United States this year. He highlighted that the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index has dipped below 50, signaling a contraction in production. Strong employment and consumer sentiment have boosted retail shipping. We will need to monitor this index to see if this signals a downturn in the economy.

The 2019 Surface Transportation Summit will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 16. Canada’s leading freight conference will try to make sense of the roller coaster that Canadian shippers and carriers have experienced over the past couple of years.

Josh Nye, Senior Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, will kick off the conference with his assessment of the current state of the Canadian and U.S. economies and share his insights on where they are headed in 2020. Two other panelists, David Ross, Managing Director, Global Transportation & Logistics, Stifel Financial Corp. and Stephen Laskowski, President, Canadian Trucking Alliance & Ontario Trucking Association, will provide their outlook on the state of the freight transportation industry in the U.S. and Canada. Following these presentations, Scott Tilley, President, Tandet Group and Anna Petrova, Supply Chain Director, Canada, Conagra Brands, representatives of a leading shipper and trucking organization, will share their perspectives on where the industry is going.

The next panel will include business leaders from five segments of the Canadian freight industry: small parcel and last mile delivery, LTL and truckload transportation, shipping by rail, fleet equipment leasing and real estate. Lucas Murua, Senior VP of Sales and Marketing, Dicom Transportation Group, Doug Munro, President and owner, M-O Freightworks, Al Boughton, Co-Founder, Trailcon Leasing, Tim Roulston, Director of Sales and Truckload Operations, Intermodal, CN Rail and Mark Cascagnette, President, Managing Partner, Lee & Associates, Toronto will share their thoughts on where their segment of the industry is going.

The always popular Shipper / Carrier Roundtable will feature Taimy Cruz, Director of Logistics, Broadgrain Commodities, Sylvie Messier, Corporate Transportation and Customs Manager, Ipex, Rob Nichols, Managing Director of Domestic Intermodal, CP Rail, Norm Sneyd, Vice President, Business Development, Bison Transport, Imtiaz Kermali, Vice President, eShipper and Joe Lombardo, Director or Freight, Transportation and Logistics, Purolator who will debate some of the most important issues facing transportation professionals in the Canadian freight industry.

There are approximately 540,000 truckload carriers registered with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in the United States. These range from 1 truck to 20,000 truck fleets. The majority have less than 20 pieces of equipment in their fleets. These companies generated approximately $350 billion in revenue in 2018.

Revenue/Tonnage Growth in 2018

Here is a link to the top 50 truckload carriers in the United States and Canada that are listed in Transport Topics (https://www.ttnews.com/top100/tl/2018). Swift Transportation, Schneider National, Landstar System, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, and Penske Logistics are the five largest US based truckload carriers; TFI (formerly TransForce International), Mullen Group, Canada Cartage, Bison Transport and Challenger Motor Freight are Canada’s largest truckload operators. It should be noted that TFI that has its head office in Canada now derives a significant share of its revenues from the United States.

Carrier costing models have evolved over the past couple of decades. Freight rates are based on the complete set of transportation-related processes at origin, in transit, and at destination, to serve each client. To effectively manage freight expenses, shippers must have a full understanding of all three elements.

Shippers with weak shipping order procedures and staging processes drive up the cost of freight transportation. Shipments that move at peak times, in congested areas, to remote areas, or on circuitous routes, drive up the cost of freight transportation. Consignees that disrupt or slow down the delivery process, that consistently extend a delivery beyond standard Hours of Service, that charge fines for late deliveries, have a significant negative impact on the financials of the shipper. What takes place during the pick-up and loading process is only part of the expense of moving freight in a cost-effective way. One of the biggest mistakes a shipper can make is to think that after they have selected high quality carriers, negotiated competitive freight rates, and trained their carriers on how to load their freight, their job is done. It isn’t.

The world of freight has changed. Hours of Service regulations coupled with the ELD implementation have increased the focus on driving and delivery windows. Strong economic conditions have created capacity shortages. Driver shortages have made capacity even tighter as carriers have had to park equipment across North America. Shippers and consignees with ineffective pick-up and delivery processes can increase the number of transit days beyond previous norms and raise costs. Shippers with chronically inefficient processes have been facing not only higher rates, but also a shortage of capacity. This can jeopardize customer retention, revenues and profits. What can shippers do to prevent this from happening?

Gain an Understanding of the Three Components of Freight Transportation for your Business

The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada.

The Booming Freight Market of 2018

Strong economic growth and high employment in the United States and Canada, coupled with concerns over US tariffs and trade wars, and high truck utilization rates, propelled freight demand and freight rate pricing skyward. Contract and spot LTL rates rose to record levels. These powerful forces helped make 2018 an outstanding year for many, but not all LTL truckers.

How Big is the LTL Market?

Annual turnover of over the road truckload drivers is currently in the range of 95 percent. The cost of replacing a driver is approximately $8000. This high turnover ratio came during a year in which truck drivers in many fleets received multiple and significant bonuses and pay increases. This begs the question of how well many trucking companies truly understand the needs and requirements of truck drivers.

I recently had the privilege of hearing a presentation from Max Farrell and Andrew Kirpilani, Co-Founders of WorkHound (www.workhound.com). Workhound is a real-time feedback platform for frontline workers. Trucking companies that subscribe to the service request their drivers to submit feedback, praise, problems, and ideas through their smartphones. Workhound distills the data daily into actionable, ready-to-use insights that help manage and retain drivers. Drivers feel empowered, knowing that their feedback is acknowledged; the subscriber that listens to and acts on the feedback receives the bottom-line benefit of a happier, motivated team.

What makes Workhound’s approach different from other standard marketing research tools? The answer is that drivers that provide their feedback to Workhound are not limited to responding to a highly structured questionnaire that has built-in biases and specific agendas. Rather, drivers are prompted weekly to share their experiences, any experiences and observations, good or bad. They are free to write about any aspect of their jobs. The link to share their feedback is open 24/7 and the driver can use his or her smartphone to enter their insights. Eighty-seven percent of the drivers in the data base use a smartphone. Workhound continuously monitors the feedback and sorts them into twelve themes.

Companies that receive this feedback are encouraged to respond individually or collectively to the problems that are raised. Workhound’s trucking company customers have 60+ trucks in their fleets. They have a mix of tanker, reefer, dry van, flatbed, and expedited trailers. The data base consists of 77% Company Drivers and 23% Owner Operators.

On Monday, November 26, 2018, General Motors announced that it will be closing five plants in North America in 2019, four in the USA and one in Canada. In addition to the closures, 6000 hourly workers and 8000 salaried employees will lose their jobs. “The actions we are taking today continue our transformation to be highly agile, resilient and profitable, while giving us the flexibility to invest in the future,” said GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra. “We recognize the need to stay in front of changing market conditions and customer preferences to position our company for long-term success.”

The press release goes on to say that “GM has recently invested in newer, highly efficient vehicle architectures, especially in trucks, crossovers and SUVs. GM now intends to prioritize future vehicle investments in its next-generation battery-electric architectures. As the current vehicle portfolio is optimized, it is expected that more than 75 percent of GM’s global sales volume will come from five vehicle architectures by early next decade.”

Thirty-five years ago, I began my career in the trucking industry by working for a company that derived fifty percent of its revenues from the automotive industry. My company worked directly with these plants. I have had the opportunity to visit the GM Oshawa facility on multiple occasions. While there are only 2300 hourly workers that are employed there now, this is an iconic facility in the province of Ontario and in Canada as a whole. This plant has been a symbol to Canadians, for a century, of the importance of the automobile manufacturing and assembly industry.

This has been a remarkable year for the Surface Freight Transportation industry in North America. Here are some of the top stories for the past 12 months.

1. The Booming Economy

The booming economy was the single biggest story in the Freight Transportation industry in 2018. After years of steady but modest growth following the Great Recession of a decade ago, the economies of North America took off. A very strong jobs market, record employment, high consumer confidence, deregulation, and a tax cut in the United States stimulated an economy that was already at full throttle. Instead of a “storm” we experienced a powerful explosion. Americans and Canadians were working and spending money, pushing freight volumes to very elevated levels.

2. Climate Change

Over the past few years, one of the defining challenges in the freight transportation industry has been a shortage of qualified drivers. In April of this year, I posted a blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/what-are-trucking-companies-doing-to-solve-the-driver-shortage ) that examined the range of compensation tools and benefits that are being offered to recruit and retain drivers. In another blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/trying-to-solve-the-driver-shortage-try-paying-them-a-salary ), I suggested that some trucking companies should consider paying, at least some of their drivers, an hourly rate or salary. The following are some additional compensation schemes that carriers are employing and a few thoughts on the effectiveness of these programs.

Multiple Pay Increases in the same year

To stay competitive, some carriers are providing their drivers with multiple pay increases to ensure they stay on par with the competition.

Payment for Practical Miles

Those of us who came into the freight transportation industry in the 80s and 90s remember when there were distinct sets of service providers. There were small parcel carriers, LTL carriers, full truckload service providers and rail carload operators. Of course, during slow times, truckload carriers would move some large LTL shipments. The small parcel carriers targeted shipments in the low end of the LTL freight sector. Even back in the 80s. truckload consolidations (of multiple LTL shipments) were popular in certain industry segments (i.e. auto parts). However, these four labels were a pretty good reflection of the major types of transportation services available at that time. Companies in each of these segments had a unique core competence and tended to operate in their area of expertise.

Today, Transport Topics and other journals still publish lists of the top 100 truckload carriers and top 50 LTL carriers. However, when you examine the business activities of a number of companies in each sector, you realize that these labels no longer fit well with the diversity of services that many trucking companies currently provide.

As an example, JB Hunt has been known for years as one of the premier truckload carriers in North America. At one point in time, this was a very accurate description of this company. However, when you examine the revenue of this company, over-the-road truckload freight now represents only five percent of the total. Through a focused business strategy and organic growth, intermodal transportation, dedicated fleet movements and freight management now make up the bulk of their business.

XPO Logistics, through their acquisition of Conway, has $3.6 billion in LTL revenues and now ranks third in the rankings of LTL carriers. This company, well known for its large logistics operation, now has a strong presence in two of the major sectors of the freight transportation industry.