The Future of Transportation

A couple of weeks ago I received a copy of a fascinating new book entitled The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power, written by Roger Duncan and Michael E. Webber and published by DW Books. I was particularly struck by the chapters on the Future of the Freight Transportation Industry.

They identify “three major areas of change underway in our transportation sector. First, there is the cultural change in the way we own or use vehicles daily. Second, there are fundamental shifts in transportation technology. And finally, alternative fuels are capturing the fuel market.” Below please find some of their thoughts on Transportation Technology.

Electric Vehicles

Messrs. Duncan and Webber conclude that “the resurgence of the electric vehicle (EV) is strong today and electric cars seem destined to dominate our local transportation . . . A global coalition of countries has the aspirational goal of electric vehicles taking 30 percent of the market share by 2030. . . Cars, sedans, vans, and most trucks will be electrified in the coming decades . . . At the core of this transition is the relative efficiency of electric motors compared with internal combustion engines.”

“In addition to being cheaper to fuel, the EV is simpler and much cheaper to maintain. While your standard internal combustion engine vehicle contains about 2,000 moving parts, electric vehicles have as few as 20 . . . Electricity also has a fueling infrastructure advantage over other alternatives to petroleum. Power plants typically have excess capacity in the evening, and the distribution system already exists. When we move from petroleum-driven engines to electric motors, we open the transportation sector to a wide variety of clean, renewable sources of energy. We can bring the power of solar cells, wind turbines, dams, and nuclear reactors to move our vehicles.”

Messrs. Duncan and Webber state that “the heavy-duty trucks and semis that haul our goods and food across the country are also going to be electrified . . . Truck makers have several efforts underway to make tractor-trailers electric, and we should see electric long-haul trucks on the highways in a few years. But there still is the basic problem of the size and weight of the battery. It can become the bulk of the load, at the expense of freight. On the other hand, the infrastructure for highway charging stations for heavy-duty trucks could be set up relatively quickly. Another option to electrify heavy-duty vehicles is to use fuel cells. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells are already used in niche transportation vehicles, such as forklifts. Some truck manufacturers are also testing large fuel cell trucks for use at ports and other locations.”

The authors argue that “public acceptance may be easier to gain first with dedicated routes, or other limited and controlled situations. Fixed delivery routes may be some of the easiest to manage for autonomous vehicles; Volvo sold its first commercial autonomous truck to a mining company to run a fixed route from the mine to the port . . . Another possibility is to have a remote driver either operating the vehicle, or ready to take control. The first driverless cars are almost certainly going to have remote teleoperators either driving the car or standing by.

Truck Platooning

The authors state that “we may see the first widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology in the form of truck platooning. Platooning means trucks are linked electronically, and follow a lead driver on highways. The trucks can be fully autonomous or have drivers who join and depart platoons on the way to their final destination. Trucks would join the road train on the major highways and drivers would be able to read, eat, or do whatever they wished in the vehicle as long as it was electronically hooked into the caravan. Because they are electronically linked, they can follow each other at a distance of only a meter apart, thus reducing air resistance like a railroad car does, saving fuel. There are also safety features on the trucks that should reduce accidents. As they approach their exit, drivers would electronically detach from the caravan and resume driving control of the vehicle.” The authors highlight several tests of the Platooning concept under way in Europe and America.

Duncan and Webber state that “platooning is likely to become a major form of freight transport on our highways. It is likely that autonomous truck platoons will hit the road ahead of robo-taxis in the cities. There are fewer variables to conquer, and the movement of freight does not have the same social obstacles as riding in a driverless car does.”

The authors also state that “while there was initially some fuss . . . that automated trucking would eliminate jobs for truck drivers, rather it is the other way around: the shortage of truck drivers might help facilitate the adoption of self-driving trucks. Indeed, even the American Trucking Association is supporting the use of platooning as a response to a severe shortage of truck drivers.” They also highlight the efficiency advantages associated with electric vehicles.

Sentient-Appearing Transportation Systems

In one of the most interesting sections of the book, the authors argue that “we will be talking to our vehicles and interacting with the world through them. And the vehicles will be talking to just about everything.

At first the thought of a transportation system that talks to us and is seemingly autonomous while we are inside can seem somewhat scary. But it makes more sense when you think of this future system as an expansion of the apps, services, and transportation vehicles that we are already using.” Today, traffic engineers talk about “V2X,” which stands for “vehicle to everything.” It is the expectation that vehicles of the future will be “talking” to just about everything. The authors provide this partial list:

• V2I—Vehicle-to-Infrastructure. The car is going to be talking to traffic lights and crosswalks.

• V2V—Vehicle-to-Vehicle. Vehicles are going to be talking to each other to avoid collisions and integrate into traffic.

• V2G—Vehicle-to-Grid. The car will be exchanging information with the power grid to determine the best time and location to recharge the battery.

• V2H—Vehicle-to-Home.

• V2P—Vehicle-to-Pedestrian. Communicating to pedestrians for safety from the approaching vehicle.

Autonomous Freight Delivery

Duncan and Webber believe that “the first general use of driverless vehicles will probably be in freight delivery. There are not the safety issues of protecting a passenger, and dedicated routes for freight make this an easier transport sector to automate. Driverless technology is advancing in all areas of freight delivery: air, ship, train, and vehicles.”

“Coordinated transportation systems will ensure that single products and bulk goods can be packaged, routed, and shipped in the most efficient fashion possible, without ever being touched by human hands. After a customer decides on the product they want and the purchase is complete, robots in an automated warehouse will locate, pick, and package the product, and place it in the proper location for shipment. The warehouse will load the product onto a self-driving truck that will deliver the goods to either an airport, rail yard, or ocean port.”

Last-Mile Delivery

Freight consumption may accelerate even more quickly due to internet shopping which is receiving a significant boost from the current pandemic. “Anyone who observes daily fleets of ups, FedEx and Amazon trucks zipping around their neighborhood is seeing the power of near-instant gratification at work.”

There is also a focus on automating “the last mile” of package delivery . . . “This approach would combine self-driving delivery vehicles with the robotics necessary to get from the street or driveway to the front doorstep . . . Another option for the last mile of delivery is small robotic devices that would travel on sidewalks up to the front door. These would be slow-moving, driverless electric pods delivering packages to homes and offices. The customer could open the small robot pod with their smartphone and retrieve the package, or arrangements could be made for the building to receive it.”

Hyperloop

In a 1972 Rand Corporation report, Robert M. Salter laid out the concept of a high-speed underground transportation system using pneumatic tunnels as a way to improve the efficiency of transportation. “But in 2013, Elon Musk revealed his vision to develop the technology, calling it Hyperloop. Hyperloop vehicles are expected to reach speeds over 600 mph . . . Hyperloop trains could replace short-haul airplane traffic, especially if they can combine the frequency of the subway with the speed of the aircraft.”

These are just some of the highlights from the chapters on Transportation. This book is must reading for anyone trying to gain insights as to how buildings, transportation and energy systems will evolve over the next several decades.

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