The 2015 Surface Transportation Summit (www.surfacetransportationsummit.com) will be held at the Mississauga Convention Centre on October 14. Dan Goodwill & Associates and Newcom Business Media are delighted to report that the event has a new partner, the Freight Management Association of Canada. FMA will bolster shipper participation at the event. This year’s Summit will feature more shippers as speakers as compared to previous years. The Summit is now open for registration with a lineup of high quality speakers and a new networking feature. Here is an overview of the day.

The one day event will be kicked off with a discussion of what happened to the economy in 2015 and where it is going in 2016. Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia will provide his annual overview. He will be followed by Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets who will provide an investor’s perspective, on what is going on in the freight industry in Canada. Lou Smyrlis, Publisher and Editorial Director, Transportation Media, Newcom Business Media will lead a panel discussion with Wes Armour, President & CEO, Armour Transportation Systems and Mark Bylsma, President, Spring Creek Carriers Inc. on how they see the economy playing out in the trucking industry in 2016.

This track will be followed by an Executives Perspective panel. This year we will hear from six leaders, each from a different sector of the freight industry, who will share their perspectives on where they see their businesses going in 2016. The panel will include David Zavitz, Senior Vice President, Sales & Marketing, Canada Cartage, Mark Lerner, AVP, Intermodal, CN Rail, Joe Lombardo, Director of Transportation Processes, Purolator Inc., John Ferguson, President, SCI Logistics, Anne McKee, EVP, Trailer Wizards and Silvy Wright, President & CEO, Northbridge Financial Corporation.

Shipper-Carrier Collaboration will be the theme of the next panel discussion. This track will include three prominent shippers, the leaders of three trucking companies and the head of a 3PL. Dan Einwechter, Chairman & CEO, Challenger Group, Jason Dubois, President, Len Dubois Trucking, Doug Munro, President, Maritime-Ontario Freight Lines, Kelli Saunders, President, Morai Logistics, Ginnie Veslovaitis, Director, Transportation Operations, Hudson’s Bay Company, Alex Boxhorn, Logistics Manager, Loewen Windows and Kim Wildenmann, Traffic Coordinator, Lantic Inc. will engage in a panel discussion on how can shippers and carriers work together more effectively. This is a session not to be missed.

During the Great Recession, the LTL freight industry experienced a “near death” experience as declining freight volumes, excess capacity and falling rates conspired to dramatically reduce revenues and profits. The LTL market shrank from more than $33 billion U.S. at the peak in 2006 to $25.2 billion at the recession's trough in 2009. As we approach the mid-point of 2015, the fortunes of this industry look much brighter. Here’s why.

The industry has consolidated

Looking back over the past 25 years, only 4 of the top 50 carriers are still in operation. Over the past 10 years, there has certainly been a changing of the guard at the top. As noted in a recent Stifel transportation report, “Old Dominion has replaced FedEx Freight/Con-way Freight as the most profitable carrier in the industry. USF was bought by Yellow Roadway to become YRC Worldwide before it nearly went the way of Consolidated Freightways, Overnite became UPS Freight, Central Freight Lines went public then private, Vitran was sold in pieces, Saia sold Jevic (which then went bust), and Roadrunner acquired Dawes and Bullet to become the only national asset-light general commodity LTL carrier. The industry is more concentrated than ever . . . “

The report goes on to report that “the top-5 (U.S.) carriers have roughly 55% of the market. And those top-5 - FedEx Freight, YRC Worldwide, Con-way Freight, UPS Freight, and Old Dominion Freight Line - are all either historical disciplined pricers or have been burned in the past by their undisciplined ways or have no choice but to push price to improve margins.” The Canadian market is quite similar with TransForce, Day & Ross and Manitoulin dominating the LTL sector. Unlike the truckload sector, consolidation means more leverage and pricing power for the top LTL players.

Today’s LTL Carriers are leaner and meaner

In a recent Stifel report, it was noted that the “mother” of all capacity shortages is expected to hit the United States in 2017 as a series of government regulations reduce the supply of fleet equipment by five to fifteen percent. Despite the efforts of carriers to raise pay, upgrade facilities and improve the lifestyle of drivers, annual turnover stubbornly remains at close to one hundred percent in many fleets. On the rail side, a huge upswing in the movement of energy products by this mode has had a deleterious effect on intermodal capacity and service. Wise shippers realize that trying to secure carriers on the spot market is a risky endeavor since this leaves them open to capacity shortages and rate volatility.

What can your company do to protect itself if there are capacity shortfalls?

Is your company ready for even tighter freight capacity? Will the integrity of your company’s supply chain be maintained in this ever-changing environment? What can your company do to protect itself if there are capacity shortfalls?

1. Bring your top performing carriers under contract

An important first step is to view your major carriers as business partners. As such, it makes good sense to negotiate formal multi-year contracts with capacity commitments and service guarantees. As you engage in these types of discussions, find out how your business fits within the parameters of their operation. Does your freight move on their primary traffic lanes? Do they have head haul or back haul in the reverse direction? Are you a valued customer?

The two previous blogs in this series highlighted the critical role that the rails play in transporting crude oil. They also noted that the surge in derailments is raising serious questions about the safety of using rail transportation. In addition, as a result the large drop in the price per barrel, below the estimated breakeven cost level, this raises concerns about the ongoing economic viability of moving crude oil by rail. This blog will focus on what can be done to improve rail safety and the economics of rail transportation.

Improve the Safety of Rail Transportation

The key stakeholders on this issue are tank car manufacturers, energy producers, railroads and governments. They each have a responsibility to protect the safety of the public. It should be pointed out that Lac Megantic, Quebec, the site of the worst crude oil rail disaster, has a population of less than 6000 people. There were 47 people who perished in that rail disaster and the cost to clean up and rebuild the downtown where the train hit is projected to be $400 million. In other words, if a disaster of this nature was to hit a mid-size or major city, the cost in lives and dollars could be of an extraordinary magnitude. Since these large stakeholders collectively are deriving billions of dollars in revenue, profits and taxes from this sector, they have a major responsibility to address the safety issue. The following is a summary of what has been done, how these changes are working out and what still needs to be done.

Change the Composition of the Oil

Under regulations adopted last year and to be put into effect in April, oil companies in North Dakota will have to remove volatile gases such as propane from their crude before pumping it into a rail car. This is estimated to add another 10 cents a barrel to the cost. In April, a regulation in North Dakota requires oil to be kept at a vapor pressure below 13.7 pounds per square inch goes into effect. This process known as conditioning, which companies can use to meet that standard, is the “bare minimum” step to lower volatility.

The business case for shipping crude oil by rail was outlined in the previous blog. The rapid growth in the production of oil in Canada and the United States coupled with the flexibility and efficiency of shipping crude oil by rail has seen the volumes moving via this mode increase 5000 percent growth rate over the past 5 years. Crude oil by rail has grown from almost zero to eleven percent of the revenue of the class 1 railroads during this period. Two things have had a dramatic impact on this business model. They are the rapid and huge drop in the price of a barrel of oil and the level of derailments that have made this a major safety hazard. This blog will focus on the current economics of moving oil by rail. 

The Cost of Producing Crude Oil

The cost required to lift crude oil and maintain oil wells, equipment, and facilities is called production cost or lifting cost. A Market Realist article published in January 2015 draws information from the EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) 2009 report that shows the production cost of crude oil was ~$12 per barrel for the United States and ~$10 per barrel for the Middle East. But recent consensus says these costs could range from $20 to $25 per barrel.

The Cost of Shipping Crude Oil by Rail

The cost to transport a barrel of crude oil ranges between $10 and $20 depending on the origin and destination locations. It must be kept in mind that some of the major rails in the U.S. and Canada have been adding a $1000 surcharge per tanker car in cases where old DOT-111 cars are used. This adds about $1.50 to the per barrel cost. An article published in the February 2 Toronto Globe & Mail stated that recent developments are casting doubt on the business case for shipping crude oil by rail. Since rail costs are about double the cost of shipping via pipeline, “it is unclear if high costs make shipping by rail a money-making mode of transport for producers.” It should be noted that the above-mentioned breakeven analysis doesn’t reflect the additional costs that will come from the necessary upgrades to improve rail safety (as outlined in the next blog). These improvements are expected to add billions of dollars to shipping costs.

Volume of Crude Oil Moving by Rail in the United States and Canada

U.S. crude oil production has risen sharply in recent years, with much of the increased output moving by rail. In 2008, U.S. Class I railroads originated 9,500 carloads of crude oil. In 2013, they originated 407,761 carloads. In the first half of 2014, it was 229,798 carloads. Much of the recent increase in crude oil production has been in North Dakota, where crude oil production rose from an average of 81,000 barrels per day in 2003 to more than one million barrels per day by mid-2014, making it the second-largest oil producing state. Crude oil output in Texas, the top crude oil producing state, was relatively flat from 2003 to 2009, but has skyrocketed since then, exceeding three million barrels per day by mid-2014. Canada ships 3.2 million barrels a day via pipeline and 215,000 barrels a day via rail.

Assuming, for simplicity, that each rail tank car holds about 30,000 gallons (714 barrels) of crude oil, the 229,798 carloads of crude oil originated by U.S. Class I railroads in the first half of 2014 was equivalent to 900,000 barrels per day moving by rail. According to EIA data, total U.S. domestic crude oil production in the first half of 2014 was 8.2 million barrels per day, so the rail share was around 11 percent of the total.

Advantages of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

Pipelines have traditionally transported most crude oil, but in recent years railroads have become critical players. In addition to the fact that railroads provide transportation capacity in many areas where pipeline capacity is insufficient, railroads offer a number of other advantages for transporting crude oil:

As we approach the end of February, most truckers would acknowledge that this is a good year for the North American motor carrier industry. Business volumes remain strong, in fact stronger than they have been during the first few months of prior years. Supply and demand remain in pretty good balance. Capacity is tight as experienced drivers remain in short supply. Low diesel fuel costs are keeping this operating expense in a more manageable range than it has been in some time. For Canadian manufacturers, the eighty cent dollar is helping drive exports to the United States. Many shippers are receptive to rate increases to ensure they retain their core carriers. There hasn’t been a better time in years to improve yields.

In the past, truckers would go to their low margin accounts during the good times and seek a significant rate increase or de-market some accounts in the hope that new, more profitable accounts would be added. As economic conditions worsened and revenues declined, these same truckers would often go back to the accounts they de-marketed and then try to re-secure them. This feast or famine approach to yield management did not appreciably improve the business on a long term basis. Some companies have learned from experience that there is a better way. During these fairly buoyant times, the opportunity exists to make some significant and sustainable improvements to the bottom line of your trucking business. Here’s how.

Get an Accurate Reading on the Margins on all of your Accounts

If you haven’t invested in a good cost accounting system, now is the time to do so. As a starting point for any yield management initiative, it is critical that you don’t guess at the margins of your accounts. A good costing system will supply you with high quality estimates of the margins of your clients. The system should supply you with a list of your accounts in descending order by contribution margin by lane. There is a need to fully understand what is driving these numbers.

Which specific costs are contributing to the low margins on some accounts? Does a particular account incur too much waiting time? Is the freight difficult to load? Does the driver have to incur too many out of route miles to pick up or deliver the freight? Are the costs in line but the rates are non-compensatory? Do the rates not sufficiently cover fuel or accessorial charges or freight density? What are the factors that are producing an inadequate return on the account? Where do the rates have to be to achieve a satisfactory yield on the account? This will serve as a partial roadmap as to where improvements are required.

This year, major freight carriers have been seeking general rate (GRI) increases, higher fuel surcharges (at a time when energy prices are at their lowest levels in years), accessorial charge rate hikes and the implementation of dimensional LTL pricing. In other words, shippers, particularly in the small parcel and LTL sectors are facing a barrage of rate increases in 2015.

This brought to mind some words of wisdom I heard from Jerry Hempstead, President of Hempstead Consulting during the Logistics Management 2015 Rate Outlook webinar. Jerry made the comment that when it comes to freight rates, shippers “don’t get what they deserve, they get what they negotiate.” This sage advice has stayed with me since the call and is the inspiration for this blog. Here are a few thoughts to consider.

Data is Power

Shippers without good freight data are virtually defenseless in rate discussions. If you don’t have accurate data on the density of your freight, you are at the mercy of freight companies, their scales and dimensioning devices. If you don’t have quality data on your volumes by lane and on the various components (e.g. line haul charges, fuel surcharge, accessorial charges) of your freight spend, you are not able to able to manage your freight and communicate effectively with your carriers.

In President Obama’s State of the Union message that he delivered to a joint session of congress on Tuesday, January 20, he stated that the “shadow of the (economic) crisis has passed” in the United States. The very next day, the Governor of the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates by 0.25 percent “to stave off emerging risks such as weak inflation and a real-estate downturn.” The rate cut, the first by a Group of Seven country in the face of oil prices that have tumbled to about $46 (U.S.) a barrel from $110 last June, caught financial markets off guard. The Canadian dollar plummeted about 1.5 cents to close at 81.07 cents.

This raises a number of questions. First, are the economies of Canada and the United States that different? As two large trading partners that share the largest unprotected border in the world, why has the U.S. signaled that the recession has passed while Canada has highlighted its fears of falling backward into a downturn?

It is interesting that this announcement comes as the manufacturing sector in eastern Canada revs up. Anecdotal evidence from truckers (in eastern Canada) suggests that freight volumes are strong for the month of January, stronger than in prior years. Why make this move and why make it now?

There are two ways to frame the move by Steve Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada. One could look at yesterday’s announcement as an act of desperation, as the sign of a country that blinked first in the face of the challenges facing the energy industry. While we have been receiving hints of increases in interest rates for some time, this action runs contrary to expectations. It may signal a worry, possibly based on early reports of layoffs and cancelled capital expenditures in the energy sector, that the Bank of Canada had to do an “about face” and take dramatic action to counter this potential threat to the economy. Of course, this also signals Canada’s overdependence on energy, that we have two many “eggs in one basket” and that our economy is nowhere near as diversified as the American economy.

Clearly the quick drop in the value of Canadian dollar is unsettling and may not instill confidence in the Canadian government, the BOC, our currency or the Canadian economy. The central bank warned that lower oil prices would take a sizable bite out of economic growth in 2015, delay a return to full capacity and hurt business investment – a trend that has already triggered layoffs and spending cuts in Alberta’s oil-and-gas industry. Canada’s two-speed economy is undergoing a major reversal of fortunes, with the once-booming energy sector fading while the manufacturing sector is rebounding, Mr. Poloz said. Economist David Madani of Capital Economics said that “clearly, [the BoC] is far more worried about a severe housing market correction.”

Here are few statistics to consider. On June 27, 2014 a barrel of crude oil cost $107.26 U.S. On the same date, a gallon of diesel fuel cost $3.91 in the U.S. or $1.35 per liter in Canada. The cross-border (Canada/U.S.) fuel surcharge was 20.1 percent on LTL, 47 percent on truckload.

Last week, the price per barrel dropped to $50 while the price of diesel fuel fell to $3.13 in the U.S and $1.18 per liter in Canada. The cross-border fuel surcharge fell to 13.4 percent on LTL and 31.6 percent on truckload. This week the cost per barrel is trending below $50. The cost per barrel has dropped by over fifty percent in the past six months. In the same period, fuel surcharges have declined by about a third. Here are few thoughts that shippers need to keep in mind.

1. Shippers will receive a freight cost saving windfall in 2015

An energy expert suggested this week in Forbes magazine that we may see the cost of a barrel of diesel fuel fall to as low as $20 this year. While no one knows what the bottom is or how long energy costs will remain at these levels, the end result will be an unexpected cost saving bonanza for shippers. Enjoy it as long as it lasts.

2. What comes down will go up

This past year was a tumultuous and transformative year in Freight Transportation. What is in store for us in 2015? Here are some trends to watch.

1. Dimensional LTL Pricing

The National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system, developed during the Great Depression by the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, classifies goods based on four elements—density, stowability, handling, and liability—that reflect a shipment's "transportability." However, the ratings from the system are not derived from the dimensions of the actual shipment but from average shipment characteristics. The classification methodology was not designed to accommodate the changes in modern-day production methods, where goods tend to be lighter and generally cube out in a trailer before they weigh out. For nearly eight decades, less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers have been using this system to allocate their trailer space.

Change will come to the LTL freight industry in 2015, driven by so-called dimensionializing, or dimensioning, machines that precisely calculate the amount of space a shipment will occupy in a trailer. The machines measure a shipment's dimensions—arrived at by multiplying length, width, and height—and provide proof of their calculations. A high-end "static" machine designed to measure stationary objects sells in the low to mid-$80,000s. The payoff can be rapid—30 to 60 days, depending on how a carrier uses the machine and how it calculates return on investment (ROI). Carriers like UPS Freight and FedEx Freight, LTL units of highly visible companies that have used dimensioners in their parcel operations for decades, are going that way. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., that has used dimensioning equipment since 2009, YRC Worldwide Inc., and many of the other leading players in the LTL sector will likely follow the leaders.

2. Low Energy Prices will continue for much of 2015

As the year draws to a close, it is time to reflect on the major news stories in the world of freight transportation. These are the ones that struck me as being the most impactful.

1. The Economy – Two Steps Forward/One Step Back

US GDP grew by over 3 percent in 2014, its best showing in several years. A rise in employment levels, coupled with an increase in consumer spending, helped lift the American freight market. The long, slow post Great Recession recovery finally kicked into a higher gear, driving an upswing in freight activity.

However, November data highlighted a slowdown in the pace of recovery across the U.S. manufacturing sector. At 54.7, down from 55.9 in October, the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) indicated the weakest overall improvement in business conditions since the snow-related setback in January. Although the latest reading remained well above the neutral 50.0 threshold, the index has now dropped for three months in a row. Weaker rates of output and new business growth were the main negative influences on the headline PMI figure in November.

2. America - the Super Energy Power

At the 2013 Summit, Jacquie Meyers, President of Meyers Transportation Services, made shipper-carrier collaboration a “hot topic” with an impassioned plea to both sides to take a more enlightened approach to working together. Her argument was that this is the best way to reduce freight costs. Since this plea resonated so well with the attendees, Jackie was invited to come back and participate in a panel discussion on this topic with another carrier and two prominent shippers.

This year Jacquie was joined by Elias Demangos, President & CEO, Fortigo Transportation Management Group, Anna Petrova, Associate Director, Supply Chain, Ferrero Canada Ltd., and Susan Promane, Director, Supply Chain, Whirlpool Canada. To lead off the track, Jacquie was asked to provide a definition of a successful shipper-carrier partnership. She expressed the view that true shipper-carrier collaboration is the opposite of a poorly-run freight RFQ that goes to 105 transport companies with the lowest price carriers being awarded the freight. Jacquie stated that a true shipper-carrier partnership is based on honest communication, trust, commitment and investment. A 2, 3 or 5 year commitment allows her company to invest in equipment and develop special customer service solutions. While there is room for “good” RFQ’s, working together will achieve greater efficiencies and cost savings.

The two shippers on the panel presented their views on what it takes to make this happen. Anna Petrova suggested that they key is “alignment on strategy. The carriers we hire are an extension of our brand.” Since retail customers can “fire us” or “punish us” for poor performance (e.g. poor case fill rate, poor on-time service), the shipper and carrier must perform in these areas. On-time service is a carrier KPI and it is up to her carriers to provide the service.

Susan Promane reinforced this point by highlighting the importance of “execution.” She stated that very few carriers operate as true partners. Susan mentioned that she shares her annual goals with her carriers and monitors their performance on a monthly and annual basis. While she agrees with the concept of a multi-year commitment, to her that means 2 years since the world changes too much in that time frame to lock in for a longer period.

Anna suggested that there is value in “formalizing SLAs” (service level agreements) so as to clarify expectations with respect to trailer drops, dedicated CSRs, service reports etc. Providing a carrier partner, particularly a new partner, with this information helps build trust and creates accountability. When a carrier meets their service expectations, they aren’t just talking the talk; they are “walking the talk.” Susan also emphasized the importance of tracking safety, EDI compliance and billing accuracy.

A sold out crowd attended the 2014 Surface Transportation Summit at the Mississauga Convention Centre on October 15. This year’s conference had 30 speakers and panelists and two networking tracks. While I was not able to attend all of the tracks, here are some of my key takeaways from this year’s sessions on Trends in the Economy and Trucking.

The 2015 Economic Outlook track featured a leading economist and transportation equity analyst along with two trucking company executives. Despite the recent turbulence in the stock market, Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia, highlighted that the US economy is trending positively and expects this momentum will carry into 2015. Mr. Gomes stated that U.S. and Canadian household balance sheets are in their best shape in some time as interest rates remain low and energy prices have trended lower. In terms of economic activity, orders for manufactured goods in the U.S. have picked up and the number of backlog orders is at the highest level in years.

In addition, annual automobile sales are above 16 million units and will likely remain at elevated levels due to the average age of cars in the U.S. and Canada. Exports are also trending upwards in Canada and should be sustained by the low Canadian dollar and the fact that the U.S. remains Canada’s largest trading partner. This combination of variables suggests that Canada will benefit from the strong relationship with the United States. Mr. Gomes expects GDP growth in Canada of 3.5% this year and 4% next year.

David Newman Equity Research Analyst, Cormark Securities, noted that regulatory changes in the U.S. and driver shortages are leading to pricing improvements in the trucking and rail sectors. These shortages are pushing spot and contract rates upward. Looking at the PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) and ISM (Institute of Supply Management) indices, there is momentum in freight volumes. This could support healthy freight activity through the first six months of 2015. Truck orders are back to 2006 levels that reflect the confidence in the economy. Truckload carriers are consolidating with TransForce and Celadon making major acquisitions. Mr. Newman expects more consolidation in the Canadian market but he also expects the truckload division of TransForce to be spun off.

Mark Seymour, President, Kriska Holdings Limited, talked about the “discipline” and technology that Kriska employed to drive improved pricing and profits. This discipline has allowed his company to have a good “run rate” over the past few years. Driver wages and the treatment of drivers are keys to future growth at Kriska. Mark highlighted the requirement for short term (one year) pricing with long term commitments (“annual pricing conversations”).

Over the past few weeks, there are a couple of items that have come to my attention that inspired me to write this blog. First, I had the pleasure of sitting in on the annual Masters of Logistics webcast, sponsored by Logistics Management. This is the 23rd year that these high quality researchers have surveyed a large sample of shippers and carriers to get a “read” on the current state of the industry. As always, the study produced a number of interesting findings. The one that caught my eye is the disconnect between shippers and carriers. The researchers labelled it a “tug of war.”

The results highlight that shippers and carriers, at this point in time, have conflicting business objectives. On one side we find freight carries looking to recover from the economic downturn and offset the rising costs of driver wages, higher fleet costs and regulatory changes. With capacity tight and drivers in short supply, trucking companies are seeking to maximize profitability.

At the other end, shippers are trying to reduce their costs while managing increasing demand uncertainty from all customer levels. “In fact, many shippers are asking for cost reductions at the same time that they’re asking for improvements in service,” says Karl Manrodt, one of the lead researchers. How do you reconcile these opposing views?

Some companies are coming up with white papers to educate the shipping public on the challenges that carriers are facing. Within the past few weeks I received two good ones, “Industry Challenges” from JB Hunt and “Truckload Capacity in 2014, What’s Causing the Capacity Crunch and What Can Shippers Do About It?” from DAT Solutions. These are useful, well written documents. They do help create an understanding of the issues being faced by shippers and carriers. They also contain some helpful tips on how to obtain additional capacity and secure competitive rates. Unfortunately, written documents have limited value.

The key to bridging the gap between shippers and carriers is face to face communication. As I think back over the years, the current “tug of war” brings back memories of 1999. Some of you may remember the concerns over Y2K and the worries that the year 2000 would bring a meltdown in computer systems throughout the world. As President of a large freight broker at the time, I remember the conversations I had with our top 10 carrier partners. While addressing the Y2K issue, we had an opportunity to discuss various aspects of our business relationship. This was very productive and is clearly what is required now.

A few weeks ago, I gave a presentation to a group of transportation professionals at a Best Practices in Cross-Border Freight Transportation conference in Buffalo, NY, sponsored by SMC3. I made the point that changes in just one variable, Currency Exchange, could make or break a company. As I look back over my lifetime (I am an old guy), Canada – U.S. exchange rates have varied from a Canadian dollar being worth $0.61 US to $1.10 US. As evidenced by the past few days, these currency fluctuations can occur quickly and without warning.

Furthermore, these types of variances can have huge impacts on shippers and carriers. If you look at some of Canada’s core industries (e.g. newsprint, minerals), the effects can be devastating in terms of market competitiveness, north-south freight flows, freight rates, empty miles, - - - even business survival.  Currency exchange fluctuations are just one of a number of variables that can change quickly and without much warning. There are a host of others.

Think about the winter we came through in the first quarter of this year. Is this the result of climate change? Will this be, as some suspect, the new normal? Have you made plans in the event that the next winter is as bad as the last one? We are still dealing with rail congestion as a result of the harsh winter and we are about to enter the fourth quarter. In addition to winter storms, we are seeing an upswing in other types of weather issues (e.g. tornados) in America and other countries.

Think about the Middle East that is a powder keg today. What if war breaks out in a variety of locales? What if ISIS tries to attack America? What if some sources of energy supplies are cut off and diesel fuel prices spike? What happens if the economy spikes? Think about the driver shortages today, the challenges in attracting drivers into the industry and the potential impacts on the supply of truck and rail equipment if the demand for transportation services is not met with an increase in supply. What would significant increases in freight rates do to your business?

Think about the possibility of an economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, Russia and/or South America, countries that are still dealing with the aftermath of the last recession. What would happen to our economy if some of these economies falter? We are living in a turbulent and fragile world.

This year, all signs point to rising freight rates. With driver shortages across North America, driver wages are on the rise. On an almost daily basis, there are reports of trucking companies offering signing bonuses and pay for performance (productivity) packages to attract more drivers (at a higher cost) to their firms. Capacity shortages, government regulations and increases in fleet costs are all driving upward pressure on costs. In addition, economic growth is increasing the demand for transportation services as freight carrier consolidation, particularly in Canada, reduces the range of carrier choices.  New pricing methodologies (e.g. Dimensional Pricing) will also serve to push up freight rates, particularly for low density LTL shipments.

Shippers have been using Freight RFPs or Freight Bids for years in an attempt to keep freight rates under control. The question is whether FRPs still work effectively in a climate of rising freight rates? As a company that has been conducting freight bids for over ten years, the answer is yes, but they take more thought, more planning and more work than is the past. Here are a few tips to ensure your company achieves the best value for its transportation dollars.

1. Leverage your volumes

Your company’s volume of freight, in the traffic lanes where your vendors and customers are located, is the deck of cards your company brings to the table. One of the keys to success is to leverage these volumes as effectively as possible. To do so, it is helpful to consolidate (for purposes of rate negotiations) the freight volumes you have across multiple plants, divisions, sister companies and/or even competitors, if possible. Larger freight volumes give you a bigger bargaining stick.

For many years, industry experts have been predicting a consolidation in the Canadian freight industry. During and after the Great Recession, the decibel level of these warnings increased as most trucking companies faced the challenges of reduced freight volumes, sinking rates and the difficulty of managing a business during recessionary times. In fact, the industry did shrink by an estimated fifteen percent during the downturn, not through acquisition, but through companies closing their doors or parking equipment.

As one looks back over the past five years, the Canadian economy has been recovering, albeit painfully slowly. There has been some growth in GDP and in jobs, largely in the west. During this same period, the Canadian freight industry has been consolidating and continues to consolidate. This has been driven by a host of factors.

There were and still are willing sellers. Many trucking company owners, particularly those in the baby boomer generation, without a succession plan, or with poor prospects for survival, saw the sale of their business as the most logical business option. For some, the challenge of hanging on during the Great Recession, took some of the appeal out of the business. That coupled with the option of creating a retirement fund was a desirable route to follow.

The post-recession business climate brought a host of challenges. Just as trucking company owners are getting older, so are truck drivers. Young men and women are not interested in becoming long haul truck drivers, dealing with crossing the Canada – US border, spending weeks away from their families, for $40,000 to $50,000 per year. The driver shortage, coupled with rising costs of fuel and equipment, low margins, increasing technological sophistication and regulatory changes, have made life much more difficult, particularly for small fleets with limited access to capital.

In addition, there were and still are willing buyers. Some of the larger trucking companies and conglomerates have been active buyers. Take a look at the websites of the large truckers to see the list of companies that have been acquired. The larger fleets have seized the opportunity to increase market share, to enter new markets, and/or to acquire new drivers, equipment and management talent. With TransForce’s acquisition of Contrans, we are now seeing a very large conglomerate devour a large conglomerate. What does this all mean for the Canadian freight industry?

As I look at the LTL freight transportation today, it is hard to believe that just a few years ago, this was one of the most battered sectors of the freight industry. The LTL freight industry took a tremendous pounding during the Great Recession as business volumes contracted by about twenty-five percent. As operating margins shrunk, LTL carriers closed or consolidated terminals and cut staff in an effort to right size ether businesses. Shippers took advantage of the situation by conducting multiple freight bids to leverage their volumes to extract rate concessions.

Seven years later, the industry has changed dramatically and the pendulum has swung back in the carriers’ favour. As volumes return to pre-recession levels, LTL carriers are finding their networks full of freight. As the North American economy improves, manufacturing is on the rise. The near shoring movement is also bringing some manufacturing jobs back to America. In addition, the driver shortage is making it difficult to find drivers, particularly for long haul truckload routes. A clogged intermodal system is limiting the opportunities to divert over the road truckload freight to the rail system. The net result is that some of this freight is being diverted to large LTL shipments so it can move with an LTL carrier. In other words, this is creating traffic for an already full LTL system.

Unlike the truckload sector where even the largest players control only a small (single digit) percent of the total truckload sector, the LTL industry is highly concentrated among a core group of companies. The top 9 LTL carriers in the United States (e.g. FedEx Freight, Con-way, YRC, UPS Freight, Old Dominion, Estes, USF Holland, Reddaway and New Penn, ABF, R & L Carriers and Saia) control almost seventy percent of the LTL market. In Canada, the major players, TransForce (e.g. TST Overland, Canadian Freightways, Kingsway, QuikX, Quiktrax, Clarke Transport and Vitran), the Day and Ross Group and Manitoulin would also control a major share of the LTL market. With limited capacity and pricing discipline, this gives this group of companies considerable pricing power. With high quality costing models, these companies can now seek meaningful rate increases or de-market poor paying accounts. In other words, the “fun” is back in this business.

To further improve yields, FedEx Freight and UPS Freight are introducing density based or dimensional or cube-based pricing. I wrote about the potential of this trend years ago(http://www.dantranscon.com/images/downloads/mtr%20sep_oct%202009.pdf) and it is finally starting to take hold. Just as airlines charge for “bums in seats” and adjust their plane sizes to each route and the potential passenger traffic, LTL freight carriers are going to become much more diligent about charging shippers for the cubic space occupied on their trailers. Shippers with poor packaging, who don’t nest their products effectively or don’t design their products well or load them smartly, will face a nasty surprise. With so much industry consolidation, it won’t take long before dimensional pricing becomes more standard across the industry.

Another reason why LTL carriers are having more “fun” is in their attitudes toward logistics service providers. A few years ago, 3PLs were viewed as the enemy. They were seen as trying to poach LTL customers and replace their carriers by taking control of the direct customer interface. Times have changed. LTL carriers are increasingly viewing 3PLs as business partners. They are forming alliances with companies that have common objectives and customer profiles so they can collectively bring value to the customer. The large LTL carriers are going a step further by creating their own internal logistics or at least freight brokerage arms.

Amazon launched a new mobile phone, the Fire Phone that could be a true “game changer,” not just for mobile communications or retail sales but also for freight transportation. Let me tell you why.

Unlike other cell phone manufacturers, Amazon is looking for e-commerce business, not mass profits from mobile phone sales. That is the raison d’etre for this phone. Like Apple, they have created an entire ecosystem. Unlike Apple, their ecosystem is not based on selling just computer hardware and software such as iTunes, iPads and iPhones. Amazon wants their hundreds of millions of registered users to buy books, consumer electronics, toys, household supplies and toasters from their massive warehouses of products.

Amazon has a huge inventory of data on consumer preferences and purchasing behavior. It can tailor its marketing messages to specific target markets and then cross-sell them on purchasing other lenses for a camera or tennis clothes to go with the purchase of a new tennis racquet. Amazon’s Firefly technology allows the user to point the phone at an object and then be transferred to an Amazon website that will sell you the product. This is a neat trick (e.g. clever software) that will allow impulse buyers to obtain instant gratification.

Last but not least, the purchase of the Amazon Fire phone provides the user with a free one year subscription to the Amazon Prime $99 a year freight delivery service. So as the user sees a product in a magazine or store, the Fire Phone can take you immediately to a website that will sell you the product and suggest others that you may like. With another click on the Fire, the user can then arrange to have the goods delivered to their home or office within two business days. Clearly the Amazon Fire is trying to create a new e-commerce business model. Like every other new business model, it will take some time to gain traction. If, and more likely when it does, it could dramatically change the world of freight transportation.

The Amazon Fire will allow consumers to “point, shop and ship” almost anywhere, any time. The speed and simplicity will appeal to anyone who prefers to look at a photo and shop without going to a mall or even searching online to find an object. Of course, the Fire Phone has a number of other interesting features like 3-D imaging and an enhanced camera so it can compete with other mobile phones.