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Dan Goodwill

Dan Goodwill

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Over the past couple of weeks, I have had the privilege of sitting in on a discussion and reading some papers on the Future of Freight Transportation. I specifically would like to acknowledge the work of Steve Sashihara at Princeton Consultants and a recent Supply Chain Digest report that helped shape my ideas for this blog. While I previously had some sense of what was going on (i.e. ecommerce, Amazon) in this sector, I was surprised by the range and profound nature of the changes that are taking place. I would like to share some of the major changes with you.

Manufacturing in the Future

The big drivers of change are automation, digital technology, and robotics. Manufacturing is increasingly being performed by robots; automated systems are sorting the products and then loading them on trucks. Sensors are becoming ubiquitous and are now on products, pallets, SKUs, drivers, facilities, tractors and trailers. Conveyor systems move the right product to the right piece of trucking equipment at the right time. Loading software tells you how and where to load the product on the truck or trailer to maximize cube utilization and avoid load imbalances.

With the advent of 3D printing and artificial intelligence, companies can manufacture their products in the locations closest to their customers and/or distribution facilities. What this tells you is that the jobs of assemblers, sorters, fork lift drivers and loaders will increasingly be replaced by machines. While some manufacturing may come back to the United States or Canada, many of the traditional jobs will not.

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Last week I wrote about the consolidation that is taking place in the freight transportation industry in Canada. Thank you for the many positive comments and feedback. I hope the blog has stimulated some thought about the level of competition in the industry, in view of its domination by some very large players.

One of my longstanding colleagues in the industry, who runs an independent transportation operation in Canada, reminded me that there are a range of very fine companies that compete with the industry giants. As a follow-up to last week’s blog, I thought I would provide an overview of the competition in each sector.

As a starting point, I went back over the top 100 for hire fleets in 2016 as published in Today’s Trucking. They range from Canada’s largest trucking fleet, TFI (TransForce International) with over 26,000 pieces of equipment and almost 25,000 employees to the 100th largest company, Transport Matte, with 321 pieces of equipment and 135 employees. It should be noted that there is a steep falloff after you go from TFI to even the second-place carrier, Mullen Group, that has 13, 645 pieces of equipment and 4410 employees. Clearly, TFI is in a class by itself with not just the most trucks but with by far the largest number of fleets under one roof.

The other big fleets highlighted in the previous blog (i.e. Manitoulin, Day & Ross, Mullen) have also grown disproportionately large through a combination of organic growth and/or acquisition. A glance through the top 100 list displays a range of companies, large and small. So let’s take a look at the major freight transport sectors in Canada.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_xl_36296918.jpgIt was sad to read that Meyers Transport, a Canadian motor carrier that has served the needs of shippers in Ontario for 90 years, closed its doors on January 20. Meyer’s Transport has been one of those “salt of the earth” family run businesses that has been a part of the Canadian trucking scene for almost a century. This news caused me to reflect on the changes taking place in the Canadian freight industry.

The Meyers closing comes very shortly after the news that TFI (TransForce International) had acquired National Fast Freight in late December. TFI has been consolidating Canada’s east-west intermodal business through the acquisitions of Clarke Transport, Vitran and the Quiktrax division of QuikX. It should be noted that Clarke Transport and Vitran were the product of various consolidations over the years (i.e. TNT Railfast, CSR and Cottrell Transport in the case of Clarke). While there have been a few new entrants to this segment of the industry over the past 20 years (i.e. Quiktrax, M0 Freightworks), the number of independent players has been shrinking.

If one steps back and looks at the entire LTL sector of the Canadian freight industry, it is clear how much consolidation has taken place during this period. TFI now owns TST Overland Express, Kingsway Transport, QuikX Transportation, Concord, Tripar Transportation in addition to Clarke Transport, NFF, Vitran, Quiktrax and a host of smaller players. In Western Canada, the Mullen Group has acquired the Gardewine Group, Grimshaw Trucking, the Highway 9 Group of Companies, Jay’s Transportation, the Kleysen Group and other smaller companies, each of which has LTL operations. The Manitoulin Group has also been active in acquiring LTL carriers. Over the past few years, it has purchased the LTL business of Penner International, Smooth Freight, Jomac Transport, the LTL division of Highway 13 and Ridsdale Transport.

Of course, there has been consolidation in other segments of the Canadian transportation industry. TFI made big news a few years ago, by acquiring the Contrans Group that it added to its diverse portfolio of purchased truckload carriers. More recently it acquired the truckload operations of XPO logistics. Canada’s other major transportation companies have also been active in acquiring truckload carriers. In the small parcel sector, TFI owns Canpar, Dynamex and Loomis.

There have also been some big changes in Canada’s logistics service provider industry. Radiant Logistics of Bellevue Washington purchased the Wheels Group last year and in December of 2016, Transplace of Dallas Texas acquired Lakeside Logistics. Two of Canada’s leading freight management companies are now under American ownership. Clearly there has been much consolidation in the traditional sectors of Canada’s freight industry - - - small parcel, LTL, truckload and third party logistics.

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Yesterday I had the distinct privilege of watching President Obama bestow the Presidential Medal of Freedom, with distinction, the highest U.S. civil honour, on Vice President Joe Biden. President Obama referred to him as “the finest Vice-President we have ever seen.” Coming a day after President-elect Donald Trump’s bizarre news conference, it was an extraordinary ceremony. It highlighted some key elements that are part of any successful business or personal relationship.

Eight and a half years ago, President Obama asked the then Senator Biden to become his Vice President. It should not be forgotten that Joe Biden ran against him to become the democratic nominee of his party. In selecting Biden, President Obama undoubtedly was looking for someone with extensive government experience but also someone with extensive life experience. Yesterday’s remarkable tribute said a lot of about their relationship and about the components of a truly successful relationship. Here are few take-aways from the speeches of the two men.

Shared Values Created a Strong Bond

The two men came from modest beginnings. The president was raised by his mother and her parents. His father played a minimal role in his life. He initially worked as a community organizer on the south side of Chicago. President Obama is a devoted husband and father.

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The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States will likely have a profound effect for years to come. I cannot remember another point in my lifetime where there is the possibility of so much change and disruption to established norms and principles of business. How do we prepare for what could be a roller coaster four or eight years in North America and around the world?

Knowledge is power. The intent of this blog is to propose a set of KPIs that we can all use to measure the impact of the new president and his policies. Mr. Trump has made a number of bold promises in his pre- and post-election speeches. Specifically, he has promised to “Make America Great Again,” to stem the flow of manufacturing jobs overseas and to renegotiate NAFTA. By monitoring these KPIs, they will help us determine how his presidency is impacting our countries, our companies, and our personal wealth. Here are few KPIs to consider.

1. Gross Domestic Product

GDP represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period (Source: https://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp ); you can think of it as the size of the economy. The US economy advanced an annualized 3.5 percent in the three months to September of 2016. (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth )

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As we enter a New Year, many people create a set of resolutions to burn off a few pounds, to quit smoking or to achieve whatever goals are meaningful to them. On a professional level, this is a time for smart shippers to set in motion a series of resolutions to improve their company’s freight operations and their personal career trajectory. Here are a few to consider.

1. Follow the Donald . . . closely

President-elect Trump has promised to make a number of changes to both the domestic economic situation in the United States and to the current world order. As an individual who campaigned as an “outsider,” Donald Trump threatens to upend a range of current business practices. Keep a close eye on his trade policies, his efforts to boost manufacturing jobs in America, his government spending programs, his policies on climate change and on infrastructure spending. Initiatives in these areas would have an impact the flow of goods and services, on economic growth and on freight transportation.

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The previous blog looked at the potential Trump Effect (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=258 ) on Freight Transportation in 2017. This blog will focus on some of the other variables that are likely to shape the freight world in the coming year.

Upswing in Economic Growth

While 2016 was a soft year economically and in terms of freight and freight rate pricing, shippers, carriers, and economists are somewhat more optimistic about the New Year. Interest rates are likely to remain low (although there will likely be some increases in 2017). Household balance sheets are expected to remain in good shape. Employment levels in the U.S. are projected to remain strong. Investment in energy development is likely to increase. Inventory levels are predicted to decrease, driving an increase in manufacturing. Donald Trump has committed to increase the number of jobs in the United States in the coming year. The improving U.S. economy will likely help boost the Canadian economy as well.

Increase in Cost of Diesel Fuel

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This will likely be an eventful year in Freight Transportation. As I look ahead to the coming year, there will be two sets of forces at play. The President-Elect of the United States, Donald Trump, has made some bold promises. This blog will look at the potential impacts of his presidency. The next blog will examine some of the other major forces at play.

Infrastructure

Donald Trump has spoken repeatedly about improving America’s highways, bridges, and airports. The Transportation industry has bemoaned the lack of investment in infrastructure for several years. It is likely that at least some elements of whatever plan President Trump’s team puts forth will receive bi-partisan support from the other branches of government. 

It typically takes time to plan significant infrastructure projects so they reach “shovel ready” status. In addition to improving the nation’s infrastructure, these projects also create jobs, albeit over a specific timeline. Watch for some infrastructure projects to be launched in 2017 with the balance moving forward in the coming years. These projects should be a net positive for the transportation industry. However, keep in mind that some of these projects, such as toll roads, may receive some funding from private industry (if permitted by congress) and may result in higher costs for shippers and transport companies.

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Here are the top stories in freight transportation that caught my attention over the past year.

The Tepid Economy

The North American economies underperformed the global economy and the economies of emerging markets in 2016. Business investment, a key driver of the economy, was down in 2016, driven in large part by the big drop in fortunes of the oil and gas industry. Consumer spending and employment levels remained solid in the United States and somewhat less so in Canada. US manufacturing activity increased.

US imports began an uptick as did US imports of Canadian goods, driven in part by the strong US dollar and drop in the value of the Canadian dollar. Auto manufacturing remained strong in Canada but resource and activity in other sectors remained weak. The strong US dollar depressed export activity. Overall it was a sub-par year for the American and Canadian economies. As a result, demand for over the road truckload, intermodal and LTL service was soft in 2016.

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Canada Needs to Prepare for Negotiations on NAFTA

Posted by on in NAFTA

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The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), came into effect on January 1, 1994, creating the largest free trade region in the world. It was designed to generate economic growth and help raise the standard of living for the people of all three member countries.

“By any measure the NAFTA has been a success by serving as a basis to grow both trilateral and bilateral North American relationships and the results speak for themselves. This integration helps maximize our capabilities and make our economies more innovative and competitive. In 1993, trilateral trade within the North American region was over US$288 billion. In 2015, our total trilateral merchandise trade amounted to over US$ 1.0 trillion.” (Source: Government of Canada Global Affairs Canada website). This is a more than threefold increase since 1993.

During the recent US election, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump frequently spoke about the need to renegotiate NAFTA. They commonly highlighted the impact that “bad trade deals” as they were framed, had on American industry. As the election campaign unfolded, Hillary Clinton fell into line with her opponents on this issue. While the subject of renegotiating NAFTA has come up before, this time will likely be different. Here’s why.

Donald Trump has already stated that one of his major priorities is to create jobs in America. He campaigned with the slogan “Make America Great Again.” A big part of making America great again is bringing back jobs that were lost to other countries. This message resonated strongly with working class people living in “rust belt” states. In fact, the race for the Presidency was decided in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states turned their backs on the Democrats and voted for Donald Trump. To maintain the support of working class Americans in these states, Mr. Trump will have to demonstrate that he is trying to bring back jobs to these states. To better understand the challenges of people living in cities in this area, who have lost their jobs, I encourage everyone to read Hillbilly Elegy by J.D. Vance (see my blog on the book http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=253 ).

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It is still the morning after the night before. Thus, it is somewhat early to draw any conclusions about how Donald Trump and The Republican Party achieved such a major victory in the US elections this week. Having said that, there were some powerful business lessons that emerged from this election process. Here are some that immediately come to mind.

Understand the Needs of your Customers

Everyone is acknowledging today that Donald Trump heard the voices of white working class Americans and other disaffected groups better than anyone in the Democratic Party. He heard their concerns about the challenges of lost jobs, technological change, stagnation in wages and other troubling issues. Moreover, he channeled this dissatisfaction and anger into an unprecedented, historic victory.

Key Takeaway: Business leaders must take the time to tune in to their customers, to peel away the layers of the onion to hear their true concerns and then to meet their needs. It was clear from this bitter election campaign that the Democrats, the party of the working class, were not in tune with many Teamsters, working class people and other groups that have aligned with them for so long.

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The American Election Puzzle

Posted by on in Economy

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The American election process is a long, complex and byzantine exercise that is very puzzling this year. After an extensive set of primaries, Americans selected two candidates, one from each major party, that are widely disliked. Unlike President Obama, John McCain or Mitt Romney, who were respected, this year’s candidates do not command the same admiration. This is the first puzzle. With so many options to choose from, why did Americans choose these two individuals?

Donald Trump, during this election campaign, has managed to offend women, African Americans, immigrants, Latinos, veterans, gays and lesbians, disabled people and others. Women represent approximately 50% of the US population. African Americans represent 13.2% of the population while Latinos represent 17.2%. Some simple math would suggest that Mr. Trump, the Republican candidate, should be trailing Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, by huge numbers. The fact that they are only separated by a few percentage points in the most recent polls suggests that there is second puzzle. Why are so many women, African Americans, Latinos, veterans, gays and lesbians, disabled people and other groups voting for Trump?

Another element of this election that is quite different from previous elections is that Donald Trump, a representative of the Republican party has expressed views on various issues that are not consistent with Republican values. In fact, his policies on immigration, NATO, trade and other key issues have been at odds with Speaker Ryan, Senate Majority Leader McConnell and other Republican leaders. Moreover, Trump’s business practices (i.e. Trump University, not allowing African Americans to move into his buildings) have also raised major questions about Mr. Trump’s suitability for office. Many Republican officials and leaders have not endorsed Donald Trump or actually distanced themselves from him. This is a third puzzle of this election year. Why are so many Republican voters, who support some of the more traditional Republican policies, supporting this candidate this year.

The answer seems to be as follows. Hillary Clinton is not well liked. She is viewed as secretive and possibly a bit devious when it comes to the use of a private e mail server for government communication purposes; questions remain about her independence when it comes to her family Foundation that has ties to key people and groups around the world. But these concerns hardly explain how a few days before the election, the polls are so tight. To solve these puzzles requires a closer look at the structure of the states, demographics and the nature of American political beliefs and values.

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Last week, while on a brief vacation, I had the privilege of reading the book, Hillbilly Elegy, by J.D. Vance. The book tells the story of how the author, a self-described Hillbilly, rises from a life of poverty and instability to graduate from Yale Law School and join the ranks of the “elite.” It is a remarkably honest story in which Mr. Vance shares some very intimate, personal observations on the very significant challenges he had to overcome to achieve success in both his personal life and career.

Hillbilly Elegy has received a lot of attention from the media since the life it depicts is thought to be representative of many blue-collar Trump supporters. Mr. Vance was recently interviewed on several leading Sunday morning news shows.

I am not qualified to assess whether the Kentucky Hillbillies that Mr. Vance depicts in his book are typical Trump supporters. What I can say is that this is an extremely well written book that is well worth reading for its observations about life. I would encourage anyone seeking to advance their careers in the Transportation industry to read and reflect on the experiences of Mr. Vance. The following are a few thoughts.

J.D. Vance describes the Hillbilly culture in detail. He explains how the decline in manufacturing in Ohio, where Mr. Vance lived for much of his early life, had a major impact on the community. A quirky culture characterized by a low work ethic, a low priority on education, particularly for males, and poverty, led to problems with alcohol, drug addiction and human relationships. Mr. Vance had a very challenging family life.

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The subject of online freight bids and internet freight auctions came up a few times at the Surface Transportation Summit that took place in Toronto on October 13. The carriers that raised this topic spoke of the high volume and poor quality of bids that have been hitting the transportation industry this year. One carrier was so fed up with the internet auctions in which they were participating that they made a decision to opt out of them.

It is clear that where there is a market opportunity, there are a multitude of companies that are seeking to meet the needs of unsuspecting shippers. It was apparent from the carrier comments that there are a number of unqualified or underqualified, unprofessional providers, some with very limited expertise, who are providing an unsatisfactory service to their customers and a disservice to the industry. These are some of the issues that were brought to light.

There are bids on the market where the carrier is being asked to quote on 6000 lanes of traffic, a massive undertaking. In one case, the carrier was provided with shipment data that stated that there are 1600 truckloads of freight that move on a particular lane each year. The carrier that is the incumbent, looked at their data and noticed that they move only 160 LTL shipments on the particular lane each year.

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Some large LTL carriers have announced rates increases this fall. Old Dominion, XPO Logistics, YRC Freight and UPS Freight have all declared 4.9 percent GRI rate increases on non-contract LTL freight that took effect in September. In survey after survey, shippers have claimed that cross reductions are their number one priority. How can these two conflicting strategies be resolved?

It is important for LTL shippers to realize that LTL carriers are serious about making these increases stick. Despite somewhat muted demand for LTL service, carriers are making a determined effort to secure these increases.

One of the major reasons for the focus and discipline is balanced capacity. Most of the large LTL carriers shrank their networks considerably in the aftermath of the 2008-09 recession. As a result, there’s not a lot, if any, excess LTL capacity. Yield management is the priority this year. With limited capacity, there is little value in triggering a price war. A race to the bottom does little to help carriers raise their margins. LTL carriers are looking at their margins per lane and per account and taking action on contracted and non-contracted freight to improve yields. What can shippers do to mitigate these GRI increases?

For companies that have significant volumes of freight, they can put their business out for bid, leverage their volumes and sign multi-year contracts with minimal rate increases in subsequent years. There are a number of Best Practices that can be employed to make your freight bid a productive process (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/freight-bid-tip-1-obtain-buy-in-and-participation-from-the-operating-divisions ). For shippers that routinely do this on an annual or bi-annual basis, there are other avenues to pursue.

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On September 23rd, Logistics Management hosted a webinar at which time the co-authors of the annual Masters in Logistics study presented their major findings. For 25 years, this study has been gathering data from a large sample of shippers and carriers across various levels of spend and size. The three presenters, Karl B. Manrodt, Ph. D., Professor, Georgia College, Mary Holcomb, Ph. D., Professor, University of Tennessee and Tommy Barnes, President, Project 44, highlighted some major changes taking place in Freight Transportation.

E-Commerce is changing the Freight Spend Allocation across various Modes

In 2015, 21.9 percent of freight costs were spent on over the road truckload shipping while 21.7 percent were spent on LTL shipping. In 2016, these percentages declined to 17.8 percent for truckload and 15.0 percent LTL freight. Surface Parcel (i.e. FedEx Ground, UPS) increased year/year from 6.1 percent to 11.5 percent. Small parcel freight volumes increased by one percent. In another area of the study, the researchers revealed that 10 percent of freight shipments move from a DC direct to consumer while 21 percent now moves direct from a plant direct to consumer. This further reinforces the impact that E-Commerce and omni-channel marketing are having on freight activity.

Organization Structures are adapting to Market Dynamics

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The first blog in this series looked at the money saving opportunities for organizations that take control of Inbound Transportation. This blog will outline a series of steps that need to be taken to make this happen.

A Commitment to Act

In the last blog, it was highlighted that some vendors place a mark-up on their outbound freight costs (viz. your company’s inbound freight expenses) and pass it on to their customers. It is important for every company that receives inbound freight to understand the following.

A trucking company adds a mark-up to their costs in order to come up with their freight rates. A freight broker and/or logistics service provider will take the carrier’s rate and add another mark-up. In other words, by the time you receive shipments from your vendors, they may have from two to four mark-ups added to the basic cost.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_xl_9421932.jpgManaging Inbound Freight is often overlooked or not optimally managed as an opportunity for cost savings in many companies. This is a conclusion we have come to after working with a range of companies and industries over the past 13 years. When we are invited to meet with a manufacturer or distributor of freight, the priority is usually finding cost savings on outbound freight, not inbound freight. This seems to be the result of several factors.

First, many companies are not able to determine how much they are paying for inbound freight. Freight costs are often embedded in the “landed cost” of the products; the actual freight cost component is not identified. Many companies have poor visibility into their inbound freight activity.

Second, some companies don’t care about their inbound freight costs. They take the landed cost of their inbound shipments and add a markup. They are satisfied with this approach.

Third, some companies are concerned about upsetting their vendors by asking them what they pay for freight. These companies may be very dependent on certain vendors for specific products and have a perception that by engaging in a dialogue on freight costs, an area that the vendor has historically managed on their own, this may encourage the vendor to give priority to other customers. In some situations there is the perception that because the vendor is a large company, they are able to negotiate better rates than the manufacturer receiving the goods.

Fourth, companies often have a Transportation or Logistics Manager who is responsible for outbound freight; inbound freight is managed, unmanaged or mismanaged separately by the purchasing/procurement department. Shippers who take charge of Inbound Freight Transportation can achieve savings in a number of areas.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_xl_31478542_20160826-151328_1.jpgDuring this period of modest economic growth and ample capacity, freight rates have been in decline. This is confirmed by the various market indices that track freight rates. Lower energy prices that have translated in lower fuel surcharges have also helped keep freight rates in check. The data also indicates that some shippers are switching modes and moving from intermodal back to highway service to obtain faster service at more attractive rates. Looking ahead to the future, 54 percent of the trucking companies responding to a recent Inbound Logistics survey expect static growth in the near term.

Despite the drop in freight rates, 75 percent of shippers surveyed in the same study stated that reducing transportation costs is their top priority while only 38 percent indicating that finding capacity is a challenge. The static economy and low energy prices would appear to be creating a “perfect storm” for shippers seeking to meet their greatest challenge. The danger for shippers is to get greedy as many did during the Great Recession. We remember seeing shippers bid their freight multiple times a year in the hope of continuing to drive lower freight costs. While we are big believers in the value of high quality freight bids, we are also a strong proponent of the old adage, “you get what you pay for.”

We all know that just as there are cycles in the stock market and the housing industry, there are cycles in the freight industry. What goes down will go up again. Shippers that surround themselves with “bottom feeder” carriers at discounted rates will likely have a rude awakening when the market turns. Moreover, with new government regulations coming into play and the volatility of fuel prices, capacity will likely tighten and freight rates may rise sooner than later.

So what should thoughtful shippers do to manage their freight costs as smartly as possible? As stated above, we still believe that conducting a professional freight bid exercise, once a year or every two years is a wise thing to do. For shippers that include a range of quality carriers and logistics service partners in the RFP and conduct multiple round events, this is still a great way to secure savings in freight costs.

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One of the business trends over the past couple of decades has been the employment of personal coaches to help key leaders and executives enhance their skill sets. These coaches can be engaged to tutor an executive in such areas as leadership, decision-making and team-building; others may be hired to coach an individual in media relations, in certain “technical” job functions or in speaking another language (i.e. French or English).

When used wisely and effectively, these resources can be very helpful in expediting the career growth of a potential high achiever within an organization. For some organizations, they can help “weed out” those business leaders who don’t possess the ability to learn and adapt in a timely manner.

Some businesses and government functions are willing to spend significant dollars to fast track their top executive talent. In fact, in some companies, we encounter business leaders who have multiple coaches with each one having a specific area of expertise. The question is, what can individuals do, who wish to progress rapidly in their careers, if their organizations aren’t willing or don’t have the budget to provide this additional level of mentoring and education? Here are a few suggestions.

Take stock of your strengths and weaknesses and construct your own Career Development Plan

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