Freight Transportation Adjusts to a Resetting World Economy

The year 2011 was another momentous one that was shaped by events on all continents of the world.  Uprisings in the Middle East and the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gadhafi, the European debt crisis, the Occupy Wall Street Movement, the assassination of Osama Bin Laden, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the wedding of Prince William to Kate Middleton, and the premature passing of Steve Jobs were just a few of the signature events of another action-packed year. 

Closer to home, the three countries in North America all faced significant challenges.  The powerful drug cartels in Mexico are threatening its very existence as a democracy as the country gears up for elections in 2012.  The untimely death of Jack Layton, the very popular leader of the New Democratic party and the demise of Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party have given Steven Harper a majority government and a free hand at steering the Canadian economy over the next four years.  The U.S. situation is exactly the opposite as Democrats and Republicans cannot reach agreement on almost anything and as a result the country is in gridlock on most economic initiatives to spark its economy. 

Against a background of 8.6 percent unemployment in the U.S., millions more underemployed, one in four homes is worth less than the value of the mortgage, tight credit, anxiety over job security and a possible relapse into another recession, the economy is resetting.  Americans are saving more.  As various generations of families live together to better withstand the current economic uncertainties, home builders are erecting homes with two master bedrooms to address the social consequences of these challenging times.   Smartphones, tablets and the internet are reshaping so many of our day to day activities.  The economies of North America and around the world are being reset by this confluence of forces and by the rise of China and other developing nations around the world.

Today we received some unexpected good news in the United States as the unemployment rate fell to 8.6%.  In Canada the news wasn’t as good as the unemployment rate increased to 7.4 percent.  Without counting those people who have given up looking for work or who are underemployed (e.g. performing a job below their level of expertise and education at a wage inferior to what they should be earning), there are about 14 million people unemployed in North America (e.g. 13.3 million in the United States and 1.3 million in Canada). 

FTR Associates estimated that there was a shortage of 200,000 drivers in the United States in the first quarter of 2011.  How does one explain the fact that out of a pool of 13.3 million unemployed people (plus millions more if you include those who are underemployed), we cannot find 100,000 to 200,000 individuals to fill these jobs?

Here are some thoughts on this apparent anomaly.  There were 3.2 million commercial drivers in the United States in 2008, including 1.8 million heavy haul or tractor-trailer drivers, according to the U.S. Labor Department.  By May 2010, the number of big rig drivers had dropped 18.4 percent to about 1.5 million.  In other words, there are 300,000 drivers that left the labour force that should be available to fill the available jobs.  Why is it so hard to convince them to come back to work?

One of the most frequently mentioned reasons is compensation.  In the United States, experienced truck drivers can make $50,000 a year at some truckload carriers.  According to a BLS survey, the average wage was $39,450 in 2010 while the median wage was $37,770.  The survey indicated that 75% earn less than $47,000 per annum. 

The trucking industry has a long term practice of paying its drivers by the mile.  While there is certain fairness to this approach since it correlates directly with the amount of miles driven and hours worked, it also injects a level of uncertainty into the driver’s weekly pay package.  Inconsistent load availability translates into inconsistent pay. 

Last Thursday night, I had the distinct pleasure of participating in a Shipper-Carrier Roundtable along with a number of old friends and colleagues.  The event was organized by CITT, sponsored by Shaw Tracking and moderated by Lou Smyrlis, editorial director of Business Information Group, publishers of Canadian Transportation & Logistics and MotorTruck Fleet Executive.

As I was driving home, I tried to reflect on some of the most important messages I heard from my fellow panelists that night.  There were two that stood out.

First there was a comment from Doug Munro, president of Maritime-Ontario Freightways, about the importance of delivering good service.  While this may seem so obvious that it is not worth mentioning, it was the passion with which Doug delivered this message that stood out for me.  Doug made reference to the airline industry and noted that there is no acceptable norm other than 100% arrival of its planes.  Nothing less can be tolerated.  While it is fine for a surface transportation freight carrier to report a 98 or 99% on time service ratio, these statistics acknowledge that the company is failing 1 or 2 times out of every hundred deliveries.

Doug mentioned that one of the keys to his company’s success is to provide excellent service.  He highlighted that Maritime-Ontario Freightways is able to gain market share either through the service failures of his competitors or poorly executed acquisitions. He emphasized how he and his management team which he highlighted was the best he ever had, were all focused on instilling this message in their employees.

This message repeats itself in almost every shipper project that my company gets involved in.  During a carrier procurement exercise, shippers focus as much on service as they do on price.  A carrier that submits competitive pricing, but has not been able deliver consistent service will often find itself replaced during a freight RFP process.

On several occasions I have commented in this blog about a looming truck capacity shortage.  A soft North American economy coupled with political uncertainty and concerns about Europe and China, are discouraging carriers from making investments in their fleets.  Truckers are seeking to maximize the utilization of their existing assets and improve yields, particularly with rising equipment costs, increasingly burdensome government regulations, and a shrinking pool of qualified drivers. However, the on demand truckload model creates uncertainty as truckers wait for shippers to book a load and/or to balance a lane.   

Shippers are becoming increasingly concerned about finding the capacity they need to move their freight.  They are also concerned that tight capacity will lead to rising freight costs.   Capacity shortages in various North American markets this year have caused shippers to seek out options to current transportation processes.

A “Mutually Beneficial Antidote” to Securing Capacity and Rate Stability

One solution to these problems is dedicated contract carriage—the practice whereby, as the name implies, a trucker dedicates equipment and drivers to serving an individual shipper, allowing that customer to lock in rates and capacity with that carrier for a multi-year period.  John G. Larkin, lead transport analyst for investment firm Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., calls dedicated trucking the "mutually beneficial antidote" for carriers that want to get paid for capacity and shippers that want to know it's available.

"Both shippers and carriers are increasingly realizing that dedicated trucking may be just the solution that meets both their needs," Larkin wrote in early October.  He stated that shippers who own and operate private fleets could "see 10-percent savings right off the bat" from switching to dedicated service. That's because specialized operators can usually manage fuel, insurance, maintenance, equipment utilization, and driver schedules more efficiently than a shipper that operates its own trucks can, Larkin notes.  What's more, companies that outsource their fleet needs can free up their balance sheet capacity and reinvest more of their cash into their core business, which is generally not transportation, Larkin says.

The traditional and social media remind us on almost a daily basis that we are seeing the first manifestations of a looming capacity problem.  There are already capacity shortfalls in certain geographic areas using specific modes of transport.  With 15 to 20 percent of truck capacity removed during the recession and reduced driver availability, this may set the stage for challenging times for shippers in the years ahead as they seek to find reliable means of moving their freight.

The good news is that there is much a logistics professional can do proactively to make sure they protect the integrity of their company’s supply chain.  Here are some suggestions.

1. Think Strategically about your Supply Chain, not just Tactically about Transportation

Whether it is sourcing raw materials or shipping to customers, many organizations have options.  There may be alternative sources of supply, either domestically or in other countries.  There may be a variety of methods in bringing goods to market.  This may include shipping to a warehouse or direct to customer, varying order cycle times, changing manufacturing parameters, shipping more volume on slower freight days,  increasing safety stock levels, switching modes and a host of other variables.   This can also include relocating a warehouse to a more carrier friendly location where head haul or back haul traffic is easier to find.

In other words, it is not just about finding more carriers to handle your current volumes under the existing supply chain paradigms.  Securing capacity may require a number of strategic changes to the design of current supply chains.