Global Economic Outlook
Early this month, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for growth in the United States, Europe, Japan and the overall global economy and pointed to heightened trade tensions as a key reason. U.S. trade talks with China continue without resolution, and there are indications that the rate of Chinese economic growth is slowing. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. That would match 2016 for the weakest year since 2009. In its previous forecast in January, the IMF had predicted that international growth would reach 3.5% this year.
U.S. Economic Outlook
Economists expect U.S. first-quarter growth to decelerate less than previously thought even as they cut forecasts for the rest of the year, projecting a second-quarter rebound will fade as the effects of tax cuts wane. The median estimate for growth in the first three months of the year increased to 1.6% from 1.5% seen last month, according to an April 5-10 Bloomberg News survey. At the same time, forecasts for the second quarter held at 2.6% while those for the third edged down to 2.2% and were lower for the fourth, at 2%.
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