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On Monday, November 26, 2018, General Motors announced that it will be closing five plants in North America in 2019, four in the USA and one in Canada. In addition to the closures, 6000 hourly workers and 8000 salaried employees will lose their jobs. “The actions we are taking today continue our transformation to be highly agile, resilient and profitable, while giving us the flexibility to invest in the future,” said GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra. “We recognize the need to stay in front of changing market conditions and customer preferences to position our company for long-term success.”

The press release goes on to say that “GM has recently invested in newer, highly efficient vehicle architectures, especially in trucks, crossovers and SUVs. GM now intends to prioritize future vehicle investments in its next-generation battery-electric architectures. As the current vehicle portfolio is optimized, it is expected that more than 75 percent of GM’s global sales volume will come from five vehicle architectures by early next decade.”

Thirty-five years ago, I began my career in the trucking industry by working for a company that derived fifty percent of its revenues from the automotive industry. My company worked directly with these plants. I have had the opportunity to visit the GM Oshawa facility on multiple occasions. While there are only 2300 hourly workers that are employed there now, this is an iconic facility in the province of Ontario and in Canada as a whole. This plant has been a symbol to Canadians, for a century, of the importance of the automobile manufacturing and assembly industry.

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This has been a remarkable year for the Surface Freight Transportation industry in North America. Here are some of the top stories for the past 12 months.

1. The Booming Economy

The booming economy was the single biggest story in the Freight Transportation industry in 2018. After years of steady but modest growth following the Great Recession of a decade ago, the economies of North America took off. A very strong jobs market, record employment, high consumer confidence, deregulation, and a tax cut in the United States stimulated an economy that was already at full throttle. Instead of a “storm” we experienced a powerful explosion. Americans and Canadians were working and spending money, pushing freight volumes to very elevated levels.

2. Climate Change

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The subject of rising freight transportation costs has come up on the earnings calls and quarterly reports of almost every publicly traded manufacturer and retailer in 2018. This has been a very challenging year as many transportation expense budgets were shattered by a host of variables including a driver shortage, the ELD mandate and a surging economy.

The financial impact of rapidly rising freight costs caught large numbers of CEOs and CFOs by surprise. Many companies were unprepared for the capacity challenges and financial impacts that took place. Freight transportation expenses are typically in the range of 1 to 5% of sales. This changed in 2018. Suddenly the team that oversees these expenses, and the processes they manage, came under more scrutiny than ever before.

Economists are predicting solid economic growth in 2019 but not quite at the pace of 2018. What can CEOs do to protect their supply chains, the service to their customers, and their profits from further freight cost shock treatments in 2019? Here is a checklist to consider.

1. Eliminate Inefficient and Wasteful Practices

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The Surface Transportation Summit celebrated its 10th anniversary at the International Centre on October 10. The event addressed the profound changes that have taken hold of the Transportation industry in 2018 and where they will likely lead us in 2019.

Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, kicked off the day by highlighting that the US economy is operating beyond capacity. The U.S. is stimulating an already hot economy with tax cuts and low interest rates. As we look ahead to 2019, he noted that the level of future growth will depend on the actions of economic policy-makers.

Rising oil prices, still accommodative monetary policy and strong U.S. growth have moved the Canadian economy to capacity. The new USMCA (formerly NAFTA) trade agreement has created stability although with tariffs on steel and aluminum, and a president who can act erratically, this could change at any time.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s objectives will likely be to try to moderate the level of activity. The concern is that President will try to boost an economy that is already over capacity. In Canada, a low dollar coupled with rising oil prices and ongoing increases in interest rates by the Government of Canada are expected to moderate growth.

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Over the past few years, one of the defining challenges in the freight transportation industry has been a shortage of qualified drivers. In April of this year, I posted a blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/what-are-trucking-companies-doing-to-solve-the-driver-shortage ) that examined the range of compensation tools and benefits that are being offered to recruit and retain drivers. In another blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/trying-to-solve-the-driver-shortage-try-paying-them-a-salary ), I suggested that some trucking companies should consider paying, at least some of their drivers, an hourly rate or salary. The following are some additional compensation schemes that carriers are employing and a few thoughts on the effectiveness of these programs.

Multiple Pay Increases in the same year

To stay competitive, some carriers are providing their drivers with multiple pay increases to ensure they stay on par with the competition.

Payment for Practical Miles

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These are distressing times for Canadians. Despite numerous meetings between the Canadian and U.S. (and Mexican) delegations over the past year, NAFTA negotiations reached another impasse on Friday, August 31. It is not surprising.

The Americans have negotiated in bad faith. Canada was excluded from the recent negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico. Rather than just negotiate the exchange of auto parts and minimum salaries for auto workers, the two parties reached an agreement on a much more extensive range of issues. Clearly the Americans sought to and succeeded in muscling the Mexicans into agreeing to a 2-way pact with them. The Mexicans were also not forthcoming in advising their Canadian counterparts of their intention to reach a multi-faceted two-party agreement with the Americans.

President Trump is threatening to apply a 25 percent tariff on auto parts manufactured in Canada if he doesn’t receive concessions on access to Canada’s dairy market, on a dispute settlement mechanism and an increase in the level of duty-free purchases. According to a John Holmes, a Queen’s University professor emeritus and research fellow at the Automotive Policy Research Centre (https://www.macleans.ca/economy/what-will-happen-if-trump-slaps-a-25-per-cent-tariff-on-canadian-made-cars/?utm_source=nl&utm_medium=em&utm_campaign=mme_weekly&utm_content=202508&utm_term=0&sfi=df0198bed6a37f0cdd34c52c77052eef ), the impact on Canada would be “disastrous.”

The oddity in applying these tariffs is that American consumers would be the first ones to feel the impact. According to industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, automakers would pay an extra $5,000-$7,000 for the vehicle they plan to sell. “Unless the auto companies chose to eat some of the extra costs, it would price most of those vehicles out of the marketplace,” DesRosiers says. “There’d be no choice for consumers.” Americans won’t be happy paying thousands extra for a Toyota RAV4 simply because it came from Canada—meaning the nearly 1.8 million vehicles Canada ships south of the border annually would have a much tougher time finding a home.

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Those of us who came into the freight transportation industry in the 80s and 90s remember when there were distinct sets of service providers. There were small parcel carriers, LTL carriers, full truckload service providers and rail carload operators. Of course, during slow times, truckload carriers would move some large LTL shipments. The small parcel carriers targeted shipments in the low end of the LTL freight sector. Even back in the 80s. truckload consolidations (of multiple LTL shipments) were popular in certain industry segments (i.e. auto parts). However, these four labels were a pretty good reflection of the major types of transportation services available at that time. Companies in each of these segments had a unique core competence and tended to operate in their area of expertise.

Today, Transport Topics and other journals still publish lists of the top 100 truckload carriers and top 50 LTL carriers. However, when you examine the business activities of a number of companies in each sector, you realize that these labels no longer fit well with the diversity of services that many trucking companies currently provide.

As an example, JB Hunt has been known for years as one of the premier truckload carriers in North America. At one point in time, this was a very accurate description of this company. However, when you examine the revenue of this company, over-the-road truckload freight now represents only five percent of the total. Through a focused business strategy and organic growth, intermodal transportation, dedicated fleet movements and freight management now make up the bulk of their business.

XPO Logistics, through their acquisition of Conway, has $3.6 billion in LTL revenues and now ranks third in the rankings of LTL carriers. This company, well known for its large logistics operation, now has a strong presence in two of the major sectors of the freight transportation industry.

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Ten years ago, my colleagues at Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates set out to create a high quality educational and networking event for Transportation Professionals and Decision-Makers. From humble beginnings, the conference has evolved into Canada’s premier event in the Surface Transportation Industry. The Surface Transportation Summit now attracts hundreds of Logistics executives, Transportation Industry owners and leaders, vendors to this industry, government officials, consultants, educators, and students.

To celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Summit, the organizers, in partnership with the Freight Management Association of Canada, the Canadian Trucking Alliance and the CSCMP Toronto Roundtable have created an agenda that encompasses the most important issues of the day and assembled an elite group of moderators and panelists to address these topics. As always, the conference will begin with a discussion of the top forces that have shaped the economies and the freight industry in Canada and the United States in 2018 and will power it in 2019. Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, will provide an overview of the direction of the Canadian economy. He will be followed by Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets and David Ross, Research Managing Director, Stifel Financial Corp who will discuss the trucking and rail industries in Canada and the United States. This will be followed by a moderator led discussion with Paul Roach, President & CEO, Belmont Meat Products and Scott Smith, President, JD Smith & Sons who will share their insights on the economic projections for 2019.

The will be followed by an inside look at New Freight Transportation Technologies for Manufacturers, Distributors, and Retailers. In brief interviews, Brian Hodgson, VP, Transportation Strategy, Descartes Systems will provide some thoughts on Shipment Visibility, Dave Brajkovich, Chief Technology Officer, Polaris Transportation Group, and Iliana Oris Valiente, Managing Director, Accenture | Founder at ColliderX Blockchain R&D Hub, will discuss the Blockchain movement, Martin Abadi, Counsel, Borden Ladner Gervais LLP will provide his insights on Connected Trucks and Charles Fallon, Principal, Supply Chain Intelligence will talk about Warehouse Automation.

The Shipper-Carrier Roundtable has always been a popular track. This year Dan Einwechter, Chairman and CEO, Challenger Group of Companies, Tracy Raimondo, Vice President, Logistics, Normandin Transit, John Ferguson, President, Purolator, Andrew Fuller, Assistant Vice President, Domestic Intermodal, CN Rail, Geoffrey Joseph, President & CEO, Joseph Haulage Canada, Martin Pede, Manager Zinc Sales, Hudson Bay Mining and Fiona Renzi-Fantin, VP, Supply Chain, Maple Leaf Foods will debate some of the hot issues facing shippers and carriers in 2018.

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The truckload sector of the freight industry is different from the LTL and small parcel segments in two significant ways. Unlike the other two segments, anyone who can buy or finance the purchase of a tractor-trailer unit and can drive the rig, can enter the industry. Freed from the requirement to build cross-dock facilities and/or buy sorting machines, the barriers to entry are low.

There are approximately 540,000 truckload carriers registered with the Federal Motor carrier Safety Administration in the United States. These range from 1 truck to 20,000 truck fleets. The majority have less than 20 pieces of equipment in their fleets. These companies are projected to generate $358.6 billion in revenue in 2018. The comparable Canadian number would probably be in the range of ten percent of these numbers. The truckload sector is about ten times the size of the LTL sector.

Revenue/Tonnage Growth in 2018

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The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada. Here are links to the top 100 carriers in Canada (https://www.todaystrucking.com/top-100-ranking-canadas-largest-hire-fleets/ ) and the top 25 LTL carriers in the United States (https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/the_top_25_trucking_and_less_than_truckload_ltl_companies_in_2017 ). The combined revenue of the 25 largest U.S. LTL trucking companies remained unchanged at $31.8 billion in 2015 and 2016, according to The Journal of Commerce’s 2016 ranking of the Top 25 LTL Carriers, prepared by SJ Consulting Group. In 2017 annual revenues grew by 7.8% to $34.5 billion.

The Booming Freight Market of 2017 - 2018

Freight volumes are strong as we approach mid-year. Carriers, hampered by a lack of drivers and faced with new time constraints due to mandatory electronic logging devices (ELDs) in the United States, are increasingly being selective in picking the best-yielding freight for their freight lines. LTL carriers are picking up volume from the tightening TL market. Some large TL carriers started rejecting lighter loads of 5,000 pounds to 10,000 pounds earlier this year, and that freight is now moving via LTL carriers. The net result is LTL freight base rates are soaring with some experts projecting increases of 4 to 5 percent or more. In addition, LTL carriers are doing a better job quoting accurate dimensional pricing and accessorial charges which also places upward pressure on rates. This environment will likely continue for the remainder of this year.

The LTL Industry remains a Non-Union “Big Boys” Game

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This week President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum products from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The rationale was that this was done for reasons of National Security. In view of the very modest size of Canada’s military and the longstanding, peaceful relationship between the two countries, this explanation is ludicrous.

We are also being led to believe that the President apparently took these actions to protect jobs in the steel and aluminum industries, to correct what he deems as unfair trade practices by other countries and to bully Canada and Mexico into making concessions on the new NAFTA agreement that has been under negotiation for many months. Again, these are weak reasons to damage the strongest trade relationship between any two nations in the world.

In the case of NAFTA, the most recent sticking point has become the “sunset clause.” Vice President Mike Pence advised Prime Minister Trudeau last week that he'd have to accept this clause, which would make the trade agreement subject to renegotiation every five years. Trudeau said he couldn't accept the terms. The sunset clause is just one sticking point. The U.S. is also seeking changes to the "rules of origin" that govern how much of a car must be manufactured in North American to avoid import taxes in the three countries that make up NAFTA.

As a Canadian businessperson, I have two messages for Prime Minister Trudeau, push back hard against these bullying tactics and hit President Trump where it hurts. As the world has seen, persuasion, charm, diplomacy, and logical reasoning don’t work with this president. The fact is that both French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel, two long-time allies, went to the White House in recent weeks to reason with him. Their visits appear to have had no impact.

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While there are lots of great sports stories at this time of the year, the Vegas Golden Knights should rank at or near the top. Even if they don’t win another game this season, they have exceeded all expectations. They are currently among the two final teams battling for the Stanley Cup, an amazing accomplishment. While a number of other top professional hockey teams (the Penguins, Jets, Bruins, Predators, Leafs) have been eliminated, this first-year expansion team is still in the hunt. How do you explain this unprecedented success story?

Start with a Nucleus of Good People

The Golden Knights invested in good management talent. They hired a quality GM, good coaches, and support staff.

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In my last blog, I identified one of the recurring problems we encounter in working with shippers on a day to day basis, namely a lack of complete and accurate information on their freight transportation activities and expenses. I would argue that “you cannot manage what you cannot measure.” Good quality freight data is an essential component in the management of freight transportation.

Detailed, quality freight spend data can allow shippers to identify consolidation opportunities, to address chronic operational inefficiencies that result in excess or accessorial costs, to highlight “maverick” spend (e.g. higher cost carriers being used that are not listed in routing guide), to rectify the use of non-core carriers or more expensive modes and/or to create opportunities to construct more efficient routes and round trips. Shippers with poor quality and/or inaccurate freight cost data place themselves in a vulnerable position. Here are some steps that shippers can take to address this shortcoming and improve their profitability.

1. Build a Quality Freight Spend Data Base

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For the past 15 years, my colleagues and I have been working with shippers throughout North America to help them save money on freight transportation. In 2018, this cost has hit the radar screens of CEOs, as the tightness in freight capacity has placed upward pressure on freight rates. Many shippers have been experiencing rate increases in the high single digits and even double digits. Some CEOs have been highlighting the impact of freight costs during their quarterly investor calls and earnings reports.

A company’s freight costs often represent between two and ten percent of total revenues. For many companies in the manufacturing, distribution and retail sectors, their expenditures on freight have a direct and significant impact on their companies’ bottom lines.

Twelve years ago, I wrote a blog on this topic. In that blog, I identified one of the consistent problems we encounter in working with shippers on a day to day basis, namely a lack of complete and accurate information on their freight transportation activities. Twelve years later, this problem persists, and it is not limited to small companies. In fact, many companies with freight expenditures of five to fifty million dollars or more face the same problem.

“You can’t manage what you cannot measure.” Good quality freight data is an essential starting point in the management of freight transportation.

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Last week’s TruckWorld event at the International Centre in Toronto was a great opportunity to connect with old friends and get updated on the state of the freight transportation industry. It was clear from the huge attendance at the show that is a very good year to be in trucking. The negotiating leverage has clearly swung over to the carrier side. Shippers are being told to accept rate increases or risk losing their truck capacity to other manufacturers and distributors.

One trucking company owner summed up the state of the industry this way. The industry is facing four problems: drivers, drivers, drivers, and drivers. This caused me to reflect on what various trucking companies are doing to address this issue.

Signing Bonuses

Companies are offering from $2000 to $10,000 bonuses to experienced (one year plus) drivers.

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In last week’s blog, I highlighted the tight freight capacity being experienced across North America (https://dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=310 ), and that it is likely to continue for another year or two. For shippers that are experiencing shortages of trucking or rail equipment, there is a series of steps that need to be taken to prevent service failures and loss of market share. Here is a link to some blogs I wrote on this topic last summer (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/shippers-need-to-become-more-carrier-friendly-to-minimize-freight-rate-increases and https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/two-keys-to-maintaining-truck-capacity-this-winter ).

The following are some additional steps to take to become a Preferred Shipper.

1. Integrate a Freight Transportation Strategy into the company’s Business Plan

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North American freight markets are witnessing the strongest demand for transportation services in decades. Contract and spot freight rates continue to soar. The contract rate average revenue per mile rose 3.5 percent in 2017. Through the first two months of this year, contract truckload freight rates have jumped 15 percent per mile! “We’ve never seen numbers like this,” according to Bob Costello, the American Trucking Associations’ chief economist. So far in 2018, the total number of loads is up 5.4 percent compared with the same period a year ago.

Supply chains are also changing. The number of miles driven per load continues to decrease for full truckload carriers. The average miles driven per haul in the United States fell 34 percent last year to 524 miles, down from nearly 800 miles about 15 years ago. A changing supply chain is behind the decline, Costello said. Online and big box retailers have increased their number of distribution centers across the country, shortening distances for deliveries. The number of miles truckers are driving annually also has fallen and now stands at about 100,000, roughly 35,000 miles less than 15 years ago. Sales of trucks in the heaviest Class 8 weight segment continue to be strong as demand grows from both leasing companies and motor carriers.

CEOs are taking notice and are highlighting the impact of freight costs on their financial results. What are the drivers of this rapid escalation in freight rates? The industry is benefitting from low unemployment, booming housing starts and strong online sales growth, according to Mr. Costello. America is still feeling the impact of the three hurricanes last year and the difficult winter storms.

Truck fleets are also having difficulty supplying the needed capacity. Market demand indices show that capacity is very tight. The load to truck ratio in most parts of the United States is at a very robust 5.5. loads per piece of equipment. There are 10 flatbed loads for every flatbed driver. The impact of the ELD mandate has also contributed to driver shortages. The ELD mandate has increased the time to move loads from 1.05 days to 1.22 days on loads traveling 450 to 550 miles. Trucking companies are not expanding their fleet sizes since they cannot find drivers to fill their trucks. Even with the significant increases in driver pay, trucking networks are 100% full or higher. Truck fleets are allocating their precious assets to shippers that have speedy pick up and delivery requirements and pay compensatory rates.

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Under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules in the United States, that came into effect on Dec. 18, 2017, most trucks built after 2000 had to be equipped with an ELD (Electronic Logging Device). Fleets already using older electronic onboard recorders are grandfathered until December 2019.

The CCMTA (Canadian Council of Motor Transport Administrators) is coming forward with a Canadian ELD Mandate proposal. The Canadian ELD rules will closely mirror the US mandate to keep cross-border regulations consistent.

Regardless of when the Canadian government publishes the final rule on ELDs, which will likely be within the next year, any driver operating a commercial motor vehicle south of the border is already required to follow U.S. Hours of Service rules and regulations. Canadian carriers that make cross-border deliveries were also required to have an ELD solution by the December 2017 deadline.

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This is a year that shippers have been dreading. Increased demand, from retailers looking to restock after the holidays and from manufacturers, has made it harder for companies to book transportation, particularly on short notice. Prices have also risen due to bad weather, a new U.S. federal trucking safety rule, truck and driver shortages and diesel prices that are around a three-year high. For shippers that play the spot market, double digit rate increases are becoming the norm.

This was the subject of a feature story in a recent issue of the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-freight-costs-are-weighing-on-companies-profits-1517521490 ). A number of U.S. companies told investors that rising shipping costs in recent months have cut into earnings. Many manufacturers and retailers throughout North America spend millions of dollars a year on freight transportation.

Freight costs can represent between 1 and 10 percent of a company’s operating revenue, one of the largest cost items. Unfortunately, they are often treated as just a cost of doing business. From time to time a shipper may try out a new mode of transport, a new carrier or conduct a freight bid. Other than that, freight programs tend to remain fairly static from year to year.

During our years of consulting with shippers all over North America, we have observed a pattern of Best Practices that elevate certain shippers and companies above their peers. Employing these Best Practices allow these companies to reduce freight costs and improve profitability. One of the best ways to find out where a company stands in this area of rising freight rates is to conduct a Transportation Audit.

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The implementation of the FMCSA’s ELD mandate in the United States on December 18 was one of the most anticipated milestones in the history of trucking. The introduction of electronic logging devices is the latest attempt by the FMCSA to improve road safety and minimize road accidents in the United States. Driver fatigue is believed to be the biggest cause of road accidents. The FMCSA had previously specified Hours of Service (HOS) rules and regulations that limit how many hours a driver can drive in a day.

However, the problem is that Hours of Service were recorded with paper logs and, therefore, could be easily manipulated and falsified. ELDs are designed to eliminate paper logs and record driver duty statuses and HOS information automatically. Moreover, they are supposed to be tamper-resistant, so the recorded information cannot be altered by anyone.

Late last year, pre-mandate, the smaller fleets were wary of the decrease in miles per day and thereby the reduction in their profit margins. The word on the street was that there would be an exodus of smaller trucking companies when the regulations came into force.

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